Recent FOMC divisions, highlighted by the 9-3 July hold with three hawkish dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike, underscore the competitive dynamics behind the closely bunched probabilities for one to three dissents at the October meeting. Persistent PCE inflation near 3.4-4.1 percent—well above the 2 percent target amid energy supply shocks—clashes with a stable labor market at 4.2-4.3 percent unemployment, creating uncertainty over whether the committee will hold rates at 3.50-3.75 percent or tighten. Hawkish regional presidents and governors remain vocal, while Chair Warsh’s data-dependent approach and recent communications amplify the potential for a split outcome, with incoming September data likely serving as the key swing factor for trader sentiment on dissent counts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many dissent at the October Fed meeting?
How many dissent at the October Fed meeting?
3 25%
2 22%
1 21%
4+ 19%
NEW
NEW
Oct 28, 2026
0
15%
1
21%
2
22%
3
25%
4+
19%
3 25%
2 22%
1 21%
4+ 19%
NEW
NEW
Oct 28, 2026
0
$320 Vol.
15%
1
$344 Vol.
21%
2
$320 Vol.
22%
3
$340 Vol.
25%
4+
$689 Vol.
19%
The October Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for October 27 to 28, 2026. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on October 28, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the October Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27 to 28, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent FOMC divisions, highlighted by the 9-3 July hold with three hawkish dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike, underscore the competitive dynamics behind the closely bunched probabilities for one to three dissents at the October meeting. Persistent PCE inflation near 3.4-4.1 percent—well above the 2 percent target amid energy supply shocks—clashes with a stable labor market at 4.2-4.3 percent unemployment, creating uncertainty over whether the committee will hold rates at 3.50-3.75 percent or tighten. Hawkish regional presidents and governors remain vocal, while Chair Warsh’s data-dependent approach and recent communications amplify the potential for a split outcome, with incoming September data likely serving as the key swing factor for trader sentiment on dissent counts.
The October Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for October 27 to 28, 2026. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on October 28, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the October Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27 to 28, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the October Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27 to 28, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 4:31 PM ET
Volume
$2,014End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 4:31 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The October Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for October 27 to 28, 2026. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on October 28, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the October Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27 to 28, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent FOMC divisions, highlighted by the 9-3 July hold with three hawkish dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike, underscore the competitive dynamics behind the closely bunched probabilities for one to three dissents at the October meeting. Persistent PCE inflation near 3.4-4.1 percent—well above the 2 percent target amid energy supply shocks—clashes with a stable labor market at 4.2-4.3 percent unemployment, creating uncertainty over whether the committee will hold rates at 3.50-3.75 percent or tighten. Hawkish regional presidents and governors remain vocal, while Chair Warsh’s data-dependent approach and recent communications amplify the potential for a split outcome, with incoming September data likely serving as the key swing factor for trader sentiment on dissent counts.
The October Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for October 27 to 28, 2026. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on October 28, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the October Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27 to 28, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the October Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27 to 28, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$2,014End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 4:31 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent FOMC divisions, highlighted by the 9-3 July hold with three hawkish dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike, underscore the competitive dynamics behind the closely bunched probabilities for one to three dissents at the October meeting. Persistent PCE inflation near 3.4-4.1 percent—well above the 2 percent target amid energy supply shocks—clashes with a stable labor market at 4.2-4.3 percent unemployment, creating uncertainty over whether the committee will hold rates at 3.50-3.75 percent or tighten. Hawkish regional presidents and governors remain vocal, while Chair Warsh’s data-dependent approach and recent communications amplify the potential for a split outcome, with incoming September data likely serving as the key swing factor for trader sentiment on dissent counts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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