**Elevated inflation readings and a hawkish shift among FOMC participants are the main drivers behind the 65% market-implied probability on “Other” sequences for the July–October 2026 meetings.** With the federal funds rate held at 3.50–3.75% after the July 29 decision (9-3 vote, three dissents favoring a 25 bp hike), incoming data on core PCE, CPI, and labor-market conditions have kept rate-cut odds near zero while lifting the chance of at least one 25 bp increase in September or October. Recent Middle East-related energy price pressures and broad-based price increases have reinforced the view that policy remains only modestly restrictive, prompting traders to price a higher likelihood of tightening than the 32% assigned to three consecutive pauses. The September 15–16 meeting, with fresh CPI and employment prints due beforehand, remains the key near-term catalyst, while the October meeting’s proximity to the midterm elections adds a secondary consideration for policymakers. Market-implied odds reflect this balance of persistent inflation risks against the Fed’s data-dependent stance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOther 66%
Pause–Pause–Pause 32%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.3%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$749,487 Vol.
$749,487 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
32%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Pause–Cut–Pause
<1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
66%
Other 66%
Pause–Pause–Pause 32%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.3%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$749,487 Vol.
$749,487 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$251,231 Vol.
32%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$62,636 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$43,317 Vol.
<1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$28,302 Vol.
<1%
Other
$320,514 Vol.
66%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Elevated inflation readings and a hawkish shift among FOMC participants are the main drivers behind the 65% market-implied probability on “Other” sequences for the July–October 2026 meetings.** With the federal funds rate held at 3.50–3.75% after the July 29 decision (9-3 vote, three dissents favoring a 25 bp hike), incoming data on core PCE, CPI, and labor-market conditions have kept rate-cut odds near zero while lifting the chance of at least one 25 bp increase in September or October.
Recent Middle East-related energy price pressures and broad-based price increases have reinforced the view that policy remains only modestly restrictive, prompting traders to price a higher likelihood of tightening than the 32% assigned to three consecutive pauses. The September 15–16 meeting, with fresh CPI and employment prints due beforehand, remains the key near-term catalyst, while the October meeting’s proximity to the midterm elections adds a secondary consideration for policymakers. Market-implied odds reflect this balance of persistent inflation risks against the Fed’s data-dependent stance.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Market Opened: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Volume
$749,487End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Elevated inflation readings and a hawkish shift among FOMC participants are the main drivers behind the 65% market-implied probability on “Other” sequences for the July–October 2026 meetings.** With the federal funds rate held at 3.50–3.75% after the July 29 decision (9-3 vote, three dissents favoring a 25 bp hike), incoming data on core PCE, CPI, and labor-market conditions have kept rate-cut odds near zero while lifting the chance of at least one 25 bp increase in September or October.
Recent Middle East-related energy price pressures and broad-based price increases have reinforced the view that policy remains only modestly restrictive, prompting traders to price a higher likelihood of tightening than the 32% assigned to three consecutive pauses. The September 15–16 meeting, with fresh CPI and employment prints due beforehand, remains the key near-term catalyst, while the October meeting’s proximity to the midterm elections adds a secondary consideration for policymakers. Market-implied odds reflect this balance of persistent inflation risks against the Fed’s data-dependent stance.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$749,487End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Elevated inflation readings and a hawkish shift among FOMC participants are the main drivers behind the 65% market-implied probability on “Other” sequences for the July–October 2026 meetings.** With the federal funds rate held at 3.50–3.75% after the July 29 decision (9-3 vote, three dissents favoring a 25 bp hike), incoming data on core PCE, CPI, and labor-market conditions have kept rate-cut odds near zero while lifting the chance of at least one 25 bp increase in September or October. Recent Middle East-related energy price pressures and broad-based price increases have reinforced the view that policy remains only modestly restrictive, prompting traders to price a higher likelihood of tightening than the 32% assigned to three consecutive pauses. The September 15–16 meeting, with fresh CPI and employment prints due beforehand, remains the key near-term catalyst, while the October meeting’s proximity to the midterm elections adds a secondary consideration for policymakers. Market-implied odds reflect this balance of persistent inflation risks against the Fed’s data-dependent stance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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