The Justice Department's April 2026 closure of its criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over the central bank's $2.5 billion headquarters renovation and related congressional testimony remains the dominant factor anchoring low implied probabilities of federal charges by year-end. A federal judge quashed subpoenas earlier that year, citing no evidence of criminal conduct beyond policy friction with the administration on monetary policy, while the referral to the Fed Inspector General—who previously identified no fraud—further diminished prospects for indictment. Trader consensus on Polymarket, backed by real capital, prices these outcomes near zero, reflecting the probe's collapse amid Republican Senate pressure and broader concerns over central bank independence. No fresh investigative activity or congressional findings have surfaced since Powell's term as chair concluded in May, though any Inspector General report could theoretically reopen scrutiny without altering current market-implied odds.