Current short-range ensemble forecasts show Moscow cooling after a warm early-September spell, with daytime maxima on the 12th most likely settling in the 15–17 °C band as northwesterly flow and increased cloud cover limit solar heating. This aligns with the tightly clustered market-implied odds around those values and the long-term climatological mean high near 17 °C. Model consensus remains moderate because small shifts in frontal timing or boundary-layer moisture can alter the peak by 1–2 °C, while historical variability for the date spans roughly 12–22 °C. Fresh model runs and observational updates through September 11 will provide the next key data points for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on September 12?
Highest temperature in Moscow on September 12?
17°C 36%
16°C 26%
18°C 18%
15°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
6%
14°C
6%
15°C
15%
16°C
26%
17°C
30%
18°C
18%
19°C
8%
20°C
6%
21°C
4%
22°C or higher
<1%
17°C 36%
16°C 26%
18°C 18%
15°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
12°C or below
$122 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$0 Vol.
6%
14°C
$0 Vol.
6%
15°C
$0 Vol.
15%
16°C
$0 Vol.
26%
17°C
$56 Vol.
30%
18°C
$0 Vol.
18%
19°C
$8 Vol.
8%
20°C
$0 Vol.
6%
21°C
$0 Vol.
4%
22°C or higher
$116 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range ensemble forecasts show Moscow cooling after a warm early-September spell, with daytime maxima on the 12th most likely settling in the 15–17 °C band as northwesterly flow and increased cloud cover limit solar heating. This aligns with the tightly clustered market-implied odds around those values and the long-term climatological mean high near 17 °C. Model consensus remains moderate because small shifts in frontal timing or boundary-layer moisture can alter the peak by 1–2 °C, while historical variability for the date spans roughly 12–22 °C. Fresh model runs and observational updates through September 11 will provide the next key data points for traders.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$303End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range ensemble forecasts show Moscow cooling after a warm early-September spell, with daytime maxima on the 12th most likely settling in the 15–17 °C band as northwesterly flow and increased cloud cover limit solar heating. This aligns with the tightly clustered market-implied odds around those values and the long-term climatological mean high near 17 °C. Model consensus remains moderate because small shifts in frontal timing or boundary-layer moisture can alter the peak by 1–2 °C, while historical variability for the date spans roughly 12–22 °C. Fresh model runs and observational updates through September 11 will provide the next key data points for traders.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$303End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current short-range ensemble forecasts show Moscow cooling after a warm early-September spell, with daytime maxima on the 12th most likely settling in the 15–17 °C band as northwesterly flow and increased cloud cover limit solar heating. This aligns with the tightly clustered market-implied odds around those values and the long-term climatological mean high near 17 °C. Model consensus remains moderate because small shifts in frontal timing or boundary-layer moisture can alter the peak by 1–2 °C, while historical variability for the date spans roughly 12–22 °C. Fresh model runs and observational updates through September 11 will provide the next key data points for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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