Recent official forecasts from European meteorological services and model consensus indicate a maximum temperature near 20°C in Warsaw on September 10, 2026, driven by persistent westerly flow advecting cooler maritime air behind a frontal passage that ended the prior warm spell. Cloud cover, light rain, and moderate winds have limited diurnal heating, keeping afternoon readings in the upper teens rather than the 28–29°C observed on September 9. This places the 20°C threshold as the most probable outcome under current guidance, with modest upside risk to 21°C if breaks in cloud allow greater insolation; historical September maxima and ensemble spread support the market’s strong weighting toward these two values while discounting higher or lower extremes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on September 10?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on September 10?
20°C 80%
21°C 13%
22°C 3%
19°C 1.0%
NEW
$84,173 Vol.
NEW
$84,173 Vol.
Sep 10, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
80%
21°C
13%
22°C
3%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
20°C 80%
21°C 13%
22°C 3%
19°C 1.0%
NEW
$84,173 Vol.
NEW
$84,173 Vol.
Sep 10, 2026
15°C or below
$4,355 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$8,803 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$12,958 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$18,123 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$28,160 Vol.
1%
20°C
$6,879 Vol.
80%
21°C
$3,018 Vol.
13%
22°C
$846 Vol.
3%
23°C
$457 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$200 Vol.
<1%
25°C or higher
$372 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from European meteorological services and model consensus indicate a maximum temperature near 20°C in Warsaw on September 10, 2026, driven by persistent westerly flow advecting cooler maritime air behind a frontal passage that ended the prior warm spell. Cloud cover, light rain, and moderate winds have limited diurnal heating, keeping afternoon readings in the upper teens rather than the 28–29°C observed on September 9. This places the 20°C threshold as the most probable outcome under current guidance, with modest upside risk to 21°C if breaks in cloud allow greater insolation; historical September maxima and ensemble spread support the market’s strong weighting toward these two values while discounting higher or lower extremes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$84,173End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from European meteorological services and model consensus indicate a maximum temperature near 20°C in Warsaw on September 10, 2026, driven by persistent westerly flow advecting cooler maritime air behind a frontal passage that ended the prior warm spell. Cloud cover, light rain, and moderate winds have limited diurnal heating, keeping afternoon readings in the upper teens rather than the 28–29°C observed on September 9. This places the 20°C threshold as the most probable outcome under current guidance, with modest upside risk to 21°C if breaks in cloud allow greater insolation; historical September maxima and ensemble spread support the market’s strong weighting toward these two values while discounting higher or lower extremes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$84,173End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from European meteorological services and model consensus indicate a maximum temperature near 20°C in Warsaw on September 10, 2026, driven by persistent westerly flow advecting cooler maritime air behind a frontal passage that ended the prior warm spell. Cloud cover, light rain, and moderate winds have limited diurnal heating, keeping afternoon readings in the upper teens rather than the 28–29°C observed on September 9. This places the 20°C threshold as the most probable outcome under current guidance, with modest upside risk to 21°C if breaks in cloud allow greater insolation; historical September maxima and ensemble spread support the market’s strong weighting toward these two values while discounting higher or lower extremes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions