The market-implied odds heavily favor a Denver low of 52-53°F on September 12 due to National Weather Service observations placing the minimum at 50°F, just below the leading bin but well within the narrow range of expected late-summer variability. Clear skies, light winds, and dry conditions under a typical early-September high-pressure pattern limited radiative cooling overnight, keeping temperatures from dropping further while preventing the warmer readings associated with stronger southerly flow. This outcome aligns closely with the 1991-2020 climatological average low of 50.7°F for the date, with model consensus and real-time station data reinforcing the tight clustering around the low 50s rather than extremes. Traders appear to have weighted recent dry, stable atmospheric conditions and historical analogs over any marginal forecast shifts, with resolution now hinging on final official verification from the Denver station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Denver on September 12?
Lowest temperature in Denver on September 12?
52-53°F 90%
51°F or below 1.0%
54-55°F <1%
56-57°F <1%
$2,634 Vol.
$2,634 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
51°F or below
No
52-53°F
Yes
54-55°F
No
56-57°F
No
58-59°F
No
60-61°F
No
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
No
70°F or higher
No
52-53°F 90%
51°F or below 1.0%
54-55°F <1%
56-57°F <1%
$2,634 Vol.
$2,634 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
51°F or below
$104 Vol.
No
52-53°F
$275 Vol.
Yes
54-55°F
$61 Vol.
No
56-57°F
$15 Vol.
No
58-59°F
$2,000 Vol.
No
60-61°F
$180 Vol.
No
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
No
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
No
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
No
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
No
70°F or higher
$0 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kbkf
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market-implied odds heavily favor a Denver low of 52-53°F on September 12 due to National Weather Service observations placing the minimum at 50°F, just below the leading bin but well within the narrow range of expected late-summer variability. Clear skies, light winds, and dry conditions under a typical early-September high-pressure pattern limited radiative cooling overnight, keeping temperatures from dropping further while preventing the warmer readings associated with stronger southerly flow. This outcome aligns closely with the 1991-2020 climatological average low of 50.7°F for the date, with model consensus and real-time station data reinforcing the tight clustering around the low 50s rather than extremes. Traders appear to have weighted recent dry, stable atmospheric conditions and historical analogs over any marginal forecast shifts, with resolution now hinging on final official verification from the Denver station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kbkf
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kbkf
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$2,634End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kbkfResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kbkf
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market-implied odds heavily favor a Denver low of 52-53°F on September 12 due to National Weather Service observations placing the minimum at 50°F, just below the leading bin but well within the narrow range of expected late-summer variability. Clear skies, light winds, and dry conditions under a typical early-September high-pressure pattern limited radiative cooling overnight, keeping temperatures from dropping further while preventing the warmer readings associated with stronger southerly flow. This outcome aligns closely with the 1991-2020 climatological average low of 50.7°F for the date, with model consensus and real-time station data reinforcing the tight clustering around the low 50s rather than extremes. Traders appear to have weighted recent dry, stable atmospheric conditions and historical analogs over any marginal forecast shifts, with resolution now hinging on final official verification from the Denver station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kbkf
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kbkf
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,634End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kbkfResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The market-implied odds heavily favor a Denver low of 52-53°F on September 12 due to National Weather Service observations placing the minimum at 50°F, just below the leading bin but well within the narrow range of expected late-summer variability. Clear skies, light winds, and dry conditions under a typical early-September high-pressure pattern limited radiative cooling overnight, keeping temperatures from dropping further while preventing the warmer readings associated with stronger southerly flow. This outcome aligns closely with the 1991-2020 climatological average low of 50.7°F for the date, with model consensus and real-time station data reinforcing the tight clustering around the low 50s rather than extremes. Traders appear to have weighted recent dry, stable atmospheric conditions and historical analogs over any marginal forecast shifts, with resolution now hinging on final official verification from the Denver station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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