The market's near-certain consensus on a 100-101°F high for Austin on September 12 stems from official meteorological observations confirming that peak temperature amid hot, humid conditions with southerly winds gusting to 20 mph. National Weather Service data and station records, including those near Camp Mabry and Bergstrom, logged a maximum of 100°F under partly cloudy skies, consistent with seasonal patterns where September highs often reach the upper 90s but can spike above 100°F during periods of strong southerly flow and elevated heat indices exceeding 105°F. Model consensus from sources like the GFS supported this range without significant deviations, and the absence of cloud cover or precipitation kept surface heating efficient. Only an unexpected late-day cooling event or revised station calibration could have altered the outcome, though post-event verification has solidified the result.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on September 12?
Highest temperature in Austin on September 12?
100-101°F 100.0%
91°F or below <1%
92-93°F <1%
94-95°F <1%
$37,562 Vol.
$37,562 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
91°F or below
No
92-93°F
No
94-95°F
No
96-97°F
No
98-99°F
No
100-101°F
Yes
102-103°F
No
104-105°F
No
106-107°F
No
108-109°F
No
110°F or higher
No
100-101°F 100.0%
91°F or below <1%
92-93°F <1%
94-95°F <1%
$37,562 Vol.
$37,562 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
91°F or below
$389 Vol.
No
92-93°F
$438 Vol.
No
94-95°F
$1,232 Vol.
No
96-97°F
$1,133 Vol.
No
98-99°F
$6,159 Vol.
No
100-101°F
$9,556 Vol.
Yes
102-103°F
$10,379 Vol.
No
104-105°F
$5,056 Vol.
No
106-107°F
$2,523 Vol.
No
108-109°F
$276 Vol.
No
110°F or higher
$421 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market's near-certain consensus on a 100-101°F high for Austin on September 12 stems from official meteorological observations confirming that peak temperature amid hot, humid conditions with southerly winds gusting to 20 mph. National Weather Service data and station records, including those near Camp Mabry and Bergstrom, logged a maximum of 100°F under partly cloudy skies, consistent with seasonal patterns where September highs often reach the upper 90s but can spike above 100°F during periods of strong southerly flow and elevated heat indices exceeding 105°F. Model consensus from sources like the GFS supported this range without significant deviations, and the absence of cloud cover or precipitation kept surface heating efficient. Only an unexpected late-day cooling event or revised station calibration could have altered the outcome, though post-event verification has solidified the result.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$37,562End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market's near-certain consensus on a 100-101°F high for Austin on September 12 stems from official meteorological observations confirming that peak temperature amid hot, humid conditions with southerly winds gusting to 20 mph. National Weather Service data and station records, including those near Camp Mabry and Bergstrom, logged a maximum of 100°F under partly cloudy skies, consistent with seasonal patterns where September highs often reach the upper 90s but can spike above 100°F during periods of strong southerly flow and elevated heat indices exceeding 105°F. Model consensus from sources like the GFS supported this range without significant deviations, and the absence of cloud cover or precipitation kept surface heating efficient. Only an unexpected late-day cooling event or revised station calibration could have altered the outcome, though post-event verification has solidified the result.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$37,562End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The market's near-certain consensus on a 100-101°F high for Austin on September 12 stems from official meteorological observations confirming that peak temperature amid hot, humid conditions with southerly winds gusting to 20 mph. National Weather Service data and station records, including those near Camp Mabry and Bergstrom, logged a maximum of 100°F under partly cloudy skies, consistent with seasonal patterns where September highs often reach the upper 90s but can spike above 100°F during periods of strong southerly flow and elevated heat indices exceeding 105°F. Model consensus from sources like the GFS supported this range without significant deviations, and the absence of cloud cover or precipitation kept surface heating efficient. Only an unexpected late-day cooling event or revised station calibration could have altered the outcome, though post-event verification has solidified the result.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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