Recent forecasts from the Russian Hydrometeorological Center and global ensembles highlight a westerly frontal passage with scattered precipitation and variable cloud cover over Moscow on September 11, 2026, suppressing daytime heating and positioning the maximum near the climatological average of 17.3°C. Model consensus across runs supports an afternoon peak of 17–19°C under southerly to westerly winds of 6–11 m/s, with brief clearing potentially allowing a brief spike to 18°C before cooler air advection. This scientific outlook underpins the market’s overwhelming 99.8% weighting on 18°C. Only unexpected model shifts, such as rapid clearing or delayed frontal timing, could realistically push readings outside the narrow 17–19°C window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on September 11?
Highest temperature in Moscow on September 11?
18°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$54,169 Vol.
$54,169 Vol.
Sep 11, 2026
12°C or below
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
Yes
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C or higher
No
18°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$54,169 Vol.
$54,169 Vol.
Sep 11, 2026
12°C or below
$872 Vol.
No
13°C
$801 Vol.
No
14°C
$559 Vol.
No
15°C
$1,246 Vol.
No
16°C
$15,206 Vol.
No
17°C
$17,779 Vol.
No
18°C
$10,428 Vol.
Yes
19°C
$3,422 Vol.
No
20°C
$1,696 Vol.
No
21°C
$1,152 Vol.
No
22°C or higher
$1,009 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Russian Hydrometeorological Center and global ensembles highlight a westerly frontal passage with scattered precipitation and variable cloud cover over Moscow on September 11, 2026, suppressing daytime heating and positioning the maximum near the climatological average of 17.3°C. Model consensus across runs supports an afternoon peak of 17–19°C under southerly to westerly winds of 6–11 m/s, with brief clearing potentially allowing a brief spike to 18°C before cooler air advection. This scientific outlook underpins the market’s overwhelming 99.8% weighting on 18°C. Only unexpected model shifts, such as rapid clearing or delayed frontal timing, could realistically push readings outside the narrow 17–19°C window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$54,169End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Russian Hydrometeorological Center and global ensembles highlight a westerly frontal passage with scattered precipitation and variable cloud cover over Moscow on September 11, 2026, suppressing daytime heating and positioning the maximum near the climatological average of 17.3°C. Model consensus across runs supports an afternoon peak of 17–19°C under southerly to westerly winds of 6–11 m/s, with brief clearing potentially allowing a brief spike to 18°C before cooler air advection. This scientific outlook underpins the market’s overwhelming 99.8% weighting on 18°C. Only unexpected model shifts, such as rapid clearing or delayed frontal timing, could realistically push readings outside the narrow 17–19°C window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$54,169End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent forecasts from the Russian Hydrometeorological Center and global ensembles highlight a westerly frontal passage with scattered precipitation and variable cloud cover over Moscow on September 11, 2026, suppressing daytime heating and positioning the maximum near the climatological average of 17.3°C. Model consensus across runs supports an afternoon peak of 17–19°C under southerly to westerly winds of 6–11 m/s, with brief clearing potentially allowing a brief spike to 18°C before cooler air advection. This scientific outlook underpins the market’s overwhelming 99.8% weighting on 18°C. Only unexpected model shifts, such as rapid clearing or delayed frontal timing, could realistically push readings outside the narrow 17–19°C window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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