Kat Cammack holds a commanding lead in the Florida 3rd congressional district race, backed by her incumbency since 2021 and the district’s consistent Republican tilt, including a 23-point margin in 2024. Recent developments reinforce this positioning: her Republican primary was canceled after the August 2026 filing deadline, while Democrat Seth Harp emerged from a fragmented primary with just 45% of the vote. Cammack has raised over $2 million compared to Harp’s roughly $38,000, and independent ratings from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ classify the seat as solid or safe Republican. The general election on November 3 features limited competition from Harp and an independent candidate. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages, though late shifts could arise from unusually low turnout, national political waves, or unforeseen developments in the remaining weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFL-03 House Election Winner
FL-03 House Election Winner
$29,972 Vol.
$29,972 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Kat Cammack (R)
94%
Seth Harp (D)
6%
$29,972 Vol.
$29,972 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Kat Cammack (R)
$11,696 Vol.
94%
Seth Harp (D)
$18,276 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kat Cammack holds a commanding lead in the Florida 3rd congressional district race, backed by her incumbency since 2021 and the district’s consistent Republican tilt, including a 23-point margin in 2024. Recent developments reinforce this positioning: her Republican primary was canceled after the August 2026 filing deadline, while Democrat Seth Harp emerged from a fragmented primary with just 45% of the vote. Cammack has raised over $2 million compared to Harp’s roughly $38,000, and independent ratings from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ classify the seat as solid or safe Republican. The general election on November 3 features limited competition from Harp and an independent candidate. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages, though late shifts could arise from unusually low turnout, national political waves, or unforeseen developments in the remaining weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$29,972End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kat Cammack holds a commanding lead in the Florida 3rd congressional district race, backed by her incumbency since 2021 and the district’s consistent Republican tilt, including a 23-point margin in 2024. Recent developments reinforce this positioning: her Republican primary was canceled after the August 2026 filing deadline, while Democrat Seth Harp emerged from a fragmented primary with just 45% of the vote. Cammack has raised over $2 million compared to Harp’s roughly $38,000, and independent ratings from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ classify the seat as solid or safe Republican. The general election on November 3 features limited competition from Harp and an independent candidate. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages, though late shifts could arise from unusually low turnout, national political waves, or unforeseen developments in the remaining weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$29,972End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kat Cammack holds a commanding lead in the Florida 3rd congressional district race, backed by her incumbency since 2021 and the district’s consistent Republican tilt, including a 23-point margin in 2024. Recent developments reinforce this positioning: her Republican primary was canceled after the August 2026 filing deadline, while Democrat Seth Harp emerged from a fragmented primary with just 45% of the vote. Cammack has raised over $2 million compared to Harp’s roughly $38,000, and independent ratings from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ classify the seat as solid or safe Republican. The general election on November 3 features limited competition from Harp and an independent candidate. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages, though late shifts could arise from unusually low turnout, national political waves, or unforeseen developments in the remaining weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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