Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean holds an 89% implied probability in the Florida 4th congressional district race due to his established position, substantial fundraising advantage exceeding $2 million with over $1.6 million cash on hand, and the district's consistent Republican lean confirmed by multiple nonpartisan ratings classifying it as solid or safe for the GOP. Bean advanced unopposed after the Republican primary was canceled, while Democrat LaShonda Holloway secured her party's nomination in the August 18 primary with 57% of the vote. Holloway's limited fundraising of roughly $27,000 and prior general election defeats against Bean in 2022 and 2024 contribute to the 11.5% trader consensus for her chances ahead of the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFL-04 House Election Winner
FL-04 House Election Winner
$27,419 Vol.
$27,419 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Aaron Bean (R)
89%
LaShonda Holloway (D)
11%
$27,419 Vol.
$27,419 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Aaron Bean (R)
$16,722 Vol.
89%
LaShonda Holloway (D)
$10,697 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean holds an 89% implied probability in the Florida 4th congressional district race due to his established position, substantial fundraising advantage exceeding $2 million with over $1.6 million cash on hand, and the district's consistent Republican lean confirmed by multiple nonpartisan ratings classifying it as solid or safe for the GOP. Bean advanced unopposed after the Republican primary was canceled, while Democrat LaShonda Holloway secured her party's nomination in the August 18 primary with 57% of the vote. Holloway's limited fundraising of roughly $27,000 and prior general election defeats against Bean in 2022 and 2024 contribute to the 11.5% trader consensus for her chances ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ET
Volume
$27,419End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean holds an 89% implied probability in the Florida 4th congressional district race due to his established position, substantial fundraising advantage exceeding $2 million with over $1.6 million cash on hand, and the district's consistent Republican lean confirmed by multiple nonpartisan ratings classifying it as solid or safe for the GOP. Bean advanced unopposed after the Republican primary was canceled, while Democrat LaShonda Holloway secured her party's nomination in the August 18 primary with 57% of the vote. Holloway's limited fundraising of roughly $27,000 and prior general election defeats against Bean in 2022 and 2024 contribute to the 11.5% trader consensus for her chances ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$27,419End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean holds an 89% implied probability in the Florida 4th congressional district race due to his established position, substantial fundraising advantage exceeding $2 million with over $1.6 million cash on hand, and the district's consistent Republican lean confirmed by multiple nonpartisan ratings classifying it as solid or safe for the GOP. Bean advanced unopposed after the Republican primary was canceled, while Democrat LaShonda Holloway secured her party's nomination in the August 18 primary with 57% of the vote. Holloway's limited fundraising of roughly $27,000 and prior general election defeats against Bean in 2022 and 2024 contribute to the 11.5% trader consensus for her chances ahead of the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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