Florida’s 2nd Congressional District remains a solidly Republican seat following the retirement of longtime incumbent Neal Dunn. Austin Rogers secured the GOP nomination in the August 18 primary with 30.5% of the vote in an eight-candidate field, while Amanda Green won the Democratic primary with 33.5%. The district’s partisan lean—evidenced by Donald Trump’s 59% share in 2024 and Dunn’s 61.6% reelection—underpins trader consensus favoring Rogers at 90.5%. Rogers holds a clear fundraising and cash-on-hand edge, bolstered by his background as former general counsel to Sen. Rick Scott. Green, a first-time candidate, has raised more than $500,000 but faces structural headwinds in a district rated safe or likely Republican by major forecasters. Late developments such as turnout shifts among key voting blocs or unexpected campaign events could narrow the margin before the November 3 general election, though no such catalysts have emerged in the past month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFL-02 House Election Winner
FL-02 House Election Winner
$15,763 Vol.
$15,763 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Austin Rogers (R)
91%
Amanda Green (D)
9%
$15,763 Vol.
$15,763 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Austin Rogers (R)
$9,816 Vol.
91%
Amanda Green (D)
$5,947 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida’s 2nd Congressional District remains a solidly Republican seat following the retirement of longtime incumbent Neal Dunn. Austin Rogers secured the GOP nomination in the August 18 primary with 30.5% of the vote in an eight-candidate field, while Amanda Green won the Democratic primary with 33.5%. The district’s partisan lean—evidenced by Donald Trump’s 59% share in 2024 and Dunn’s 61.6% reelection—underpins trader consensus favoring Rogers at 90.5%. Rogers holds a clear fundraising and cash-on-hand edge, bolstered by his background as former general counsel to Sen. Rick Scott. Green, a first-time candidate, has raised more than $500,000 but faces structural headwinds in a district rated safe or likely Republican by major forecasters. Late developments such as turnout shifts among key voting blocs or unexpected campaign events could narrow the margin before the November 3 general election, though no such catalysts have emerged in the past month.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$15,763End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida’s 2nd Congressional District remains a solidly Republican seat following the retirement of longtime incumbent Neal Dunn. Austin Rogers secured the GOP nomination in the August 18 primary with 30.5% of the vote in an eight-candidate field, while Amanda Green won the Democratic primary with 33.5%. The district’s partisan lean—evidenced by Donald Trump’s 59% share in 2024 and Dunn’s 61.6% reelection—underpins trader consensus favoring Rogers at 90.5%. Rogers holds a clear fundraising and cash-on-hand edge, bolstered by his background as former general counsel to Sen. Rick Scott. Green, a first-time candidate, has raised more than $500,000 but faces structural headwinds in a district rated safe or likely Republican by major forecasters. Late developments such as turnout shifts among key voting blocs or unexpected campaign events could narrow the margin before the November 3 general election, though no such catalysts have emerged in the past month.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$15,763End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Florida’s 2nd Congressional District remains a solidly Republican seat following the retirement of longtime incumbent Neal Dunn. Austin Rogers secured the GOP nomination in the August 18 primary with 30.5% of the vote in an eight-candidate field, while Amanda Green won the Democratic primary with 33.5%. The district’s partisan lean—evidenced by Donald Trump’s 59% share in 2024 and Dunn’s 61.6% reelection—underpins trader consensus favoring Rogers at 90.5%. Rogers holds a clear fundraising and cash-on-hand edge, bolstered by his background as former general counsel to Sen. Rick Scott. Green, a first-time candidate, has raised more than $500,000 but faces structural headwinds in a district rated safe or likely Republican by major forecasters. Late developments such as turnout shifts among key voting blocs or unexpected campaign events could narrow the margin before the November 3 general election, though no such catalysts have emerged in the past month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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