**Recent U.S.-Canada trade tensions have featured U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods and Canadian retaliatory measures, prompting Ontario Premier Doug Ford and Quebec Premier Christine Fréchette to state that electricity export restrictions remain “on the table” as leverage.** However, no federal or provincial government has announced or implemented any cutoff or throttling of exports to the United States through mid-September 2026. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government has focused on targeted tariffs rather than energy restrictions, while other premiers have explicitly ruled out such steps. Cross-border electricity flows operate under longstanding contracts and grid agreements, with operators indicating that any changes would primarily affect prices rather than reliability. A similar surcharge threat in 2025 was quickly rescinded amid negotiations. With months remaining until the December 31 deadline and active diplomatic channels, the trader consensus reflected in the 94% “No” probability aligns with the absence of concrete policy action to date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated6% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
6% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Canada, through an authorized representative of either the federal government or a provincial government, including through a state-owned enterprise, announces that it is using its authority to cut off or throttle the exportation of electricity, in whole or in part, to the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Reductions or curtailments attributable to water or supply conditions, grid reliability, maintenance, commercial or contractual factors, or other ordinary-course operational decisions will not qualify.
An announcement of a qualifying action will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether electricity exports are actually throttled or cut off, and regardless of whether the action is subsequently suspended or reversed.
A qualifying action must restrict the volume or flow of electricity exports. The imposition of surcharges, taxes, tariffs, or other price-based measures alone will not be sufficient to qualify.
Statements that Canada or a province may take, is considering taking, or will take such action only if a condition is met or unmet will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian federal or provincial governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Recent U.S.-Canada trade tensions have featured U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods and Canadian retaliatory measures, prompting Ontario Premier Doug Ford and Quebec Premier Christine Fréchette to state that electricity export restrictions remain “on the table” as leverage.** However, no federal or provincial government has announced or implemented any cutoff or throttling of exports to the United States through mid-September 2026.
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government has focused on targeted tariffs rather than energy restrictions, while other premiers have explicitly ruled out such steps. Cross-border electricity flows operate under longstanding contracts and grid agreements, with operators indicating that any changes would primarily affect prices rather than reliability. A similar surcharge threat in 2025 was quickly rescinded amid negotiations.
With months remaining until the December 31 deadline and active diplomatic channels, the trader consensus reflected in the 94% “No” probability aligns with the absence of concrete policy action to date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Canada, through an authorized representative of either the federal government or a provincial government, including through a state-owned enterprise, announces that it is using its authority to cut off or throttle the exportation of electricity, in whole or in part, to the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Reductions or curtailments attributable to water or supply conditions, grid reliability, maintenance, commercial or contractual factors, or other ordinary-course operational decisions will not qualify.
An announcement of a qualifying action will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether electricity exports are actually throttled or cut off, and regardless of whether the action is subsequently suspended or reversed.
A qualifying action must restrict the volume or flow of electricity exports. The imposition of surcharges, taxes, tariffs, or other price-based measures alone will not be sufficient to qualify.
Statements that Canada or a province may take, is considering taking, or will take such action only if a condition is met or unmet will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian federal or provincial governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Reductions or curtailments attributable to water or supply conditions, grid reliability, maintenance, commercial or contractual factors, or other ordinary-course operational decisions will not qualify.
An announcement of a qualifying action will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether electricity exports are actually throttled or cut off, and regardless of whether the action is subsequently suspended or reversed.
A qualifying action must restrict the volume or flow of electricity exports. The imposition of surcharges, taxes, tariffs, or other price-based measures alone will not be sufficient to qualify.
Statements that Canada or a province may take, is considering taking, or will take such action only if a condition is met or unmet will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian federal or provincial governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 25, 2026, 6:44 PM ET
Volume
$3,604End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 6:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Canada, through an authorized representative of either the federal government or a provincial government, including through a state-owned enterprise, announces that it is using its authority to cut off or throttle the exportation of electricity, in whole or in part, to the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Reductions or curtailments attributable to water or supply conditions, grid reliability, maintenance, commercial or contractual factors, or other ordinary-course operational decisions will not qualify.
An announcement of a qualifying action will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether electricity exports are actually throttled or cut off, and regardless of whether the action is subsequently suspended or reversed.
A qualifying action must restrict the volume or flow of electricity exports. The imposition of surcharges, taxes, tariffs, or other price-based measures alone will not be sufficient to qualify.
Statements that Canada or a province may take, is considering taking, or will take such action only if a condition is met or unmet will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian federal or provincial governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Recent U.S.-Canada trade tensions have featured U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods and Canadian retaliatory measures, prompting Ontario Premier Doug Ford and Quebec Premier Christine Fréchette to state that electricity export restrictions remain “on the table” as leverage.** However, no federal or provincial government has announced or implemented any cutoff or throttling of exports to the United States through mid-September 2026.
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government has focused on targeted tariffs rather than energy restrictions, while other premiers have explicitly ruled out such steps. Cross-border electricity flows operate under longstanding contracts and grid agreements, with operators indicating that any changes would primarily affect prices rather than reliability. A similar surcharge threat in 2025 was quickly rescinded amid negotiations.
With months remaining until the December 31 deadline and active diplomatic channels, the trader consensus reflected in the 94% “No” probability aligns with the absence of concrete policy action to date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Canada, through an authorized representative of either the federal government or a provincial government, including through a state-owned enterprise, announces that it is using its authority to cut off or throttle the exportation of electricity, in whole or in part, to the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Reductions or curtailments attributable to water or supply conditions, grid reliability, maintenance, commercial or contractual factors, or other ordinary-course operational decisions will not qualify.
An announcement of a qualifying action will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether electricity exports are actually throttled or cut off, and regardless of whether the action is subsequently suspended or reversed.
A qualifying action must restrict the volume or flow of electricity exports. The imposition of surcharges, taxes, tariffs, or other price-based measures alone will not be sufficient to qualify.
Statements that Canada or a province may take, is considering taking, or will take such action only if a condition is met or unmet will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian federal or provincial governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Reductions or curtailments attributable to water or supply conditions, grid reliability, maintenance, commercial or contractual factors, or other ordinary-course operational decisions will not qualify.
An announcement of a qualifying action will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether electricity exports are actually throttled or cut off, and regardless of whether the action is subsequently suspended or reversed.
A qualifying action must restrict the volume or flow of electricity exports. The imposition of surcharges, taxes, tariffs, or other price-based measures alone will not be sufficient to qualify.
Statements that Canada or a province may take, is considering taking, or will take such action only if a condition is met or unmet will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian federal or provincial governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,604End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 6:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent U.S.-Canada trade tensions have featured U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods and Canadian retaliatory measures, prompting Ontario Premier Doug Ford and Quebec Premier Christine Fréchette to state that electricity export restrictions remain “on the table” as leverage.** However, no federal or provincial government has announced or implemented any cutoff or throttling of exports to the United States through mid-September 2026. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government has focused on targeted tariffs rather than energy restrictions, while other premiers have explicitly ruled out such steps. Cross-border electricity flows operate under longstanding contracts and grid agreements, with operators indicating that any changes would primarily affect prices rather than reliability. A similar surcharge threat in 2025 was quickly rescinded amid negotiations. With months remaining until the December 31 deadline and active diplomatic channels, the trader consensus reflected in the 94% “No” probability aligns with the absence of concrete policy action to date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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