Recent polls position the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) as the frontrunner for second place behind the leading Parti Québécois (PQ) ahead of the October 5 election. The CAQ has gained several points since August under Premier Christine Fréchette, reaching 23-24% support amid voter focus on the economy, U.S. tariffs, and trade stability, while the PQ holds steady near 29%. The Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) has slipped to around 22%, narrowing its path to second. Seat projections from multiple models indicate the PQ is favored to win the most ridings but faces a fragmented opposition, increasing the likelihood that the CAQ secures the runner-up spot in popular vote and legislative standings. Upcoming debates and final-week polling shifts remain key variables that could alter these implied probabilities reflected in current trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCAQ 64%
PLQ 18%
PQ 16%
PVQ <1%
$16,918 Vol.
$16,918 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
CAQ
64%
PLQ
18%
PQ
16%
PVQ
1%
QS
1%
PCQ
1%
CAQ 64%
PLQ 18%
PQ 16%
PVQ <1%
$16,918 Vol.
$16,918 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
CAQ
$4,532 Vol.
64%
PLQ
$4,667 Vol.
18%
PQ
$4,111 Vol.
16%
PVQ
$1,226 Vol.
1%
QS
$1,498 Vol.
1%
PCQ
$884 Vol.
1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polls position the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) as the frontrunner for second place behind the leading Parti Québécois (PQ) ahead of the October 5 election. The CAQ has gained several points since August under Premier Christine Fréchette, reaching 23-24% support amid voter focus on the economy, U.S. tariffs, and trade stability, while the PQ holds steady near 29%. The Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) has slipped to around 22%, narrowing its path to second. Seat projections from multiple models indicate the PQ is favored to win the most ridings but faces a fragmented opposition, increasing the likelihood that the CAQ secures the runner-up spot in popular vote and legislative standings. Upcoming debates and final-week polling shifts remain key variables that could alter these implied probabilities reflected in current trader consensus.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 7:30 AM ET
Volume
$16,918End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 7:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polls position the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) as the frontrunner for second place behind the leading Parti Québécois (PQ) ahead of the October 5 election. The CAQ has gained several points since August under Premier Christine Fréchette, reaching 23-24% support amid voter focus on the economy, U.S. tariffs, and trade stability, while the PQ holds steady near 29%. The Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) has slipped to around 22%, narrowing its path to second. Seat projections from multiple models indicate the PQ is favored to win the most ridings but faces a fragmented opposition, increasing the likelihood that the CAQ secures the runner-up spot in popular vote and legislative standings. Upcoming debates and final-week polling shifts remain key variables that could alter these implied probabilities reflected in current trader consensus.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$16,918End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 7:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls position the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) as the frontrunner for second place behind the leading Parti Québécois (PQ) ahead of the October 5 election. The CAQ has gained several points since August under Premier Christine Fréchette, reaching 23-24% support amid voter focus on the economy, U.S. tariffs, and trade stability, while the PQ holds steady near 29%. The Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) has slipped to around 22%, narrowing its path to second. Seat projections from multiple models indicate the PQ is favored to win the most ridings but faces a fragmented opposition, increasing the likelihood that the CAQ secures the runner-up spot in popular vote and legislative standings. Upcoming debates and final-week polling shifts remain key variables that could alter these implied probabilities reflected in current trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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