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icon for Toronto Mayoral Election Winner
Politics·Canada

Toronto Mayoral Election Winner

icon for Toronto Mayoral Election Winner
Politics·Canada

Toronto Mayoral Election Winner

Olivia Chow 90%

Brad Bradford 8%

John Tory <1%

Marco Mendicino <1%

Polymarket

$148,655 Vol.

Olivia Chow 90%

Brad Bradford 8%

John Tory <1%

Marco Mendicino <1%

Polymarket

$148,655 Vol.

icon for Olivia Chow

Olivia Chow

$39,308 Vol.

90%

icon for Brad Bradford

Brad Bradford

$39,404 Vol.

8%

icon for John Tory

John Tory

$12,442 Vol.

1%

icon for Marco Mendicino

Marco Mendicino

$16,124 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ana Bailão

Ana Bailão

$11,359 Vol.

<1%

icon for Michael Ford

Michael Ford

$11,987 Vol.

<1%

icon for Anthony Furey

Anthony Furey

$8,849 Vol.

<1%

icon for Kevin Clarke

Kevin Clarke

$9,182 Vol.

<1%

The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.Olivia Chow holds an overwhelming lead in the 2026 Toronto mayoral race as the incumbent seeking a full term after her 2023 by-election victory, with recent polling showing her at roughly 50% support against Brad Bradford’s 39% and Chris Alexander’s 10%. Her position stems from established name recognition, a series of policy pledges including property-tax restraint near inflation and expanded TTC fare caps, and consistent leads in multiple surveys through September. Bradford, the primary challenger and former councillor, has focused on affordability, congestion, and public safety but has not closed the gap despite earlier tightening in June polls after John Tory ruled out a run. Upcoming debates and the October 26 vote date provide limited remaining windows for shifts, while minor candidates register negligible support. Trader consensus reflects these polling trends and structural advantages for the sitting mayor.

The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.
Volume
$148,655
End Date
Oct 26, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 2:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.Olivia Chow holds an overwhelming lead in the 2026 Toronto mayoral race as the incumbent seeking a full term after her 2023 by-election victory, with recent polling showing her at roughly 50% support against Brad Bradford’s 39% and Chris Alexander’s 10%. Her position stems from established name recognition, a series of policy pledges including property-tax restraint near inflation and expanded TTC fare caps, and consistent leads in multiple surveys through September. Bradford, the primary challenger and former councillor, has focused on affordability, congestion, and public safety but has not closed the gap despite earlier tightening in June polls after John Tory ruled out a run. Upcoming debates and the October 26 vote date provide limited remaining windows for shifts, while minor candidates register negligible support. Trader consensus reflects these polling trends and structural advantages for the sitting mayor.

The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.
Volume
$148,655
End Date
Oct 26, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 2:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Toronto Mayoral Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Olivia Chow" at 90%, followed by "Brad Bradford" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 90¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 90% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Toronto Mayoral Election Winner" has generated $148.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Toronto Mayoral Election Winner," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Toronto Mayoral Election Winner" is "Olivia Chow" at 90%, meaning the market assigns a 90% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Brad Bradford" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Toronto Mayoral Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.