**Dry conditions observed through mid-September and stable forecast models are anchoring trader consensus around below-average totals for Seoul.** As of September 13, cumulative rainfall stands near 80–90 mm against a long-term September average of 128–150 mm. ECMWF and other ensemble guidance through late month shows predominantly dry, high-pressure patterns with negligible daily totals, limiting additional accumulation. This trajectory aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward <75 mm (81.5%), while the modest probabilities on 75–100 mm and higher bins reflect residual model spread and the possibility of late-month showers. Resolution hinges on final Korea Meteorological Administration totals; upcoming model runs and any unexpected frontal activity remain the key variables that could shift implied odds.