**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 90.5% reflects the low historical frequency of bolides releasing 10 kilotons or more of impact energy, combined with continuous near-Earth object monitoring that has identified no credible threats for 2026.** NASA’s CNEOS and ESA risk lists show no large objects on collision trajectories this year, while recent small predicted impacts—such as the sub-meter 2026 RW1—highlight improved detection without any events approaching the energy threshold. Advanced surveys like LSST further reduce the chance of surprise strikes from meter-scale or larger bodies. Realistic challenges include an undetected long-period comet or a previously unobserved asteroid, though refined orbital data and ongoing observations make these low-probability outcomes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertGroßer Meteoreinschlag (10kt+) im Jahr 2026?
Großer Meteoreinschlag (10kt+) im Jahr 2026?
Ja
9% Chance
$205,762 Vol.
$205,762 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
9% Chance
$205,762 Vol.
$205,762 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 90.5% reflects the low historical frequency of bolides releasing 10 kilotons or more of impact energy, combined with continuous near-Earth object monitoring that has identified no credible threats for 2026.** NASA’s CNEOS and ESA risk lists show no large objects on collision trajectories this year, while recent small predicted impacts—such as the sub-meter 2026 RW1—highlight improved detection without any events approaching the energy threshold. Advanced surveys like LSST further reduce the chance of surprise strikes from meter-scale or larger bodies. Realistic challenges include an undetected long-period comet or a previously unobserved asteroid, though refined orbital data and ongoing observations make these low-probability outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Volumen
$205,762Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 90.5% reflects the low historical frequency of bolides releasing 10 kilotons or more of impact energy, combined with continuous near-Earth object monitoring that has identified no credible threats for 2026.** NASA’s CNEOS and ESA risk lists show no large objects on collision trajectories this year, while recent small predicted impacts—such as the sub-meter 2026 RW1—highlight improved detection without any events approaching the energy threshold. Advanced surveys like LSST further reduce the chance of surprise strikes from meter-scale or larger bodies. Realistic challenges include an undetected long-period comet or a previously unobserved asteroid, though refined orbital data and ongoing observations make these low-probability outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volumen
$205,762Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 90.5% reflects the low historical frequency of bolides releasing 10 kilotons or more of impact energy, combined with continuous near-Earth object monitoring that has identified no credible threats for 2026.** NASA’s CNEOS and ESA risk lists show no large objects on collision trajectories this year, while recent small predicted impacts—such as the sub-meter 2026 RW1—highlight improved detection without any events approaching the energy threshold. Advanced surveys like LSST further reduce the chance of surprise strikes from meter-scale or larger bodies. Realistic challenges include an undetected long-period comet or a previously unobserved asteroid, though refined orbital data and ongoing observations make these low-probability outcomes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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