**Strong El Niño development is the dominant factor positioning sub-275 mm totals as the clear leader at 70.5% implied probability.** Hong Kong’s September climatological mean stands at 321 mm, but 2026’s emerging super El Niño is expected to suppress western North Pacific tropical cyclone genesis and steer systems away from the South China Sea, reducing typhoon-driven rainfall episodes that normally contribute 20–40% of monthly totals. Current northeast monsoon flow and model consensus through mid-month show mostly fine conditions with only scattered showers, keeping early-month accumulation modest. Traders are weighting the historical precedent of drier autumns during strong El Niño years, while noting residual uncertainty from any late-September cyclone or monsoon trough that could still push totals toward the 275–325 mm bands.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiederschlag in Hongkong im September?
Niederschlag in Hongkong im September?
<275mm 71%
275-300mm 15%
300-325mm 7.4%
550mm+ 6.0%
$13,493 Vol.
$13,493 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
<275mm
71%
275-300mm
15%
300-325mm
7%
325-350mm
4%
350-375mm
4%
375-400mm
4%
400-450mm
4%
450-500mm
1%
500-550mm
3%
550mm+
6%
<275mm 71%
275-300mm 15%
300-325mm 7.4%
550mm+ 6.0%
$13,493 Vol.
$13,493 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
<275mm
$10,849 Vol.
71%
275-300mm
$400 Vol.
15%
300-325mm
$458 Vol.
7%
325-350mm
$333 Vol.
4%
350-375mm
$220 Vol.
4%
375-400mm
$239 Vol.
4%
400-450mm
$235 Vol.
4%
450-500mm
$260 Vol.
1%
500-550mm
$241 Vol.
3%
550mm+
$258 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Strong El Niño development is the dominant factor positioning sub-275 mm totals as the clear leader at 70.5% implied probability.**
Hong Kong’s September climatological mean stands at 321 mm, but 2026’s emerging super El Niño is expected to suppress western North Pacific tropical cyclone genesis and steer systems away from the South China Sea, reducing typhoon-driven rainfall episodes that normally contribute 20–40% of monthly totals. Current northeast monsoon flow and model consensus through mid-month show mostly fine conditions with only scattered showers, keeping early-month accumulation modest. Traders are weighting the historical precedent of drier autumns during strong El Niño years, while noting residual uncertainty from any late-September cyclone or monsoon trough that could still push totals toward the 275–325 mm bands.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ET
Volumen
$13,493Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Strong El Niño development is the dominant factor positioning sub-275 mm totals as the clear leader at 70.5% implied probability.**
Hong Kong’s September climatological mean stands at 321 mm, but 2026’s emerging super El Niño is expected to suppress western North Pacific tropical cyclone genesis and steer systems away from the South China Sea, reducing typhoon-driven rainfall episodes that normally contribute 20–40% of monthly totals. Current northeast monsoon flow and model consensus through mid-month show mostly fine conditions with only scattered showers, keeping early-month accumulation modest. Traders are weighting the historical precedent of drier autumns during strong El Niño years, while noting residual uncertainty from any late-September cyclone or monsoon trough that could still push totals toward the 275–325 mm bands.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$13,493Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...**Strong El Niño development is the dominant factor positioning sub-275 mm totals as the clear leader at 70.5% implied probability.** Hong Kong’s September climatological mean stands at 321 mm, but 2026’s emerging super El Niño is expected to suppress western North Pacific tropical cyclone genesis and steer systems away from the South China Sea, reducing typhoon-driven rainfall episodes that normally contribute 20–40% of monthly totals. Current northeast monsoon flow and model consensus through mid-month show mostly fine conditions with only scattered showers, keeping early-month accumulation modest. Traders are weighting the historical precedent of drier autumns during strong El Niño years, while noting residual uncertainty from any late-September cyclone or monsoon trough that could still push totals toward the 275–325 mm bands.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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