Strong underlying U.S. economic momentum and broad consensus forecasts underpin the 98% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth in 2026. Official and private projections from the IMF, CBO, and others point to real GDP expansion of 2.0–2.3% for the year, supported by resilient consumer spending, robust business investment tied to AI, and productivity gains. Second-quarter 2026 GDP rose 1.5% annualized, with upward revisions to final sales to private domestic purchasers highlighting firmer demand, while Q3 nowcasts remain positive. Traders price in this baseline path amid contained recession risks, though tail scenarios such as sharp oil shocks, escalated tariffs, or abrupt fiscal tightening could still pressure growth toward contraction.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNegatives BIP-Wachstum im Jahr 2026?
Negatives BIP-Wachstum im Jahr 2026?
Ja
2% Chance
$33,280 Vol.
$33,280 Vol.
28. Jan. 2027
Ja
2% Chance
$33,280 Vol.
$33,280 Vol.
28. Jan. 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong underlying U.S. economic momentum and broad consensus forecasts underpin the 98% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth in 2026. Official and private projections from the IMF, CBO, and others point to real GDP expansion of 2.0–2.3% for the year, supported by resilient consumer spending, robust business investment tied to AI, and productivity gains. Second-quarter 2026 GDP rose 1.5% annualized, with upward revisions to final sales to private domestic purchasers highlighting firmer demand, while Q3 nowcasts remain positive. Traders price in this baseline path amid contained recession risks, though tail scenarios such as sharp oil shocks, escalated tariffs, or abrupt fiscal tightening could still pressure growth toward contraction.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volumen
$33,280Enddatum
29. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong underlying U.S. economic momentum and broad consensus forecasts underpin the 98% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth in 2026. Official and private projections from the IMF, CBO, and others point to real GDP expansion of 2.0–2.3% for the year, supported by resilient consumer spending, robust business investment tied to AI, and productivity gains. Second-quarter 2026 GDP rose 1.5% annualized, with upward revisions to final sales to private domestic purchasers highlighting firmer demand, while Q3 nowcasts remain positive. Traders price in this baseline path amid contained recession risks, though tail scenarios such as sharp oil shocks, escalated tariffs, or abrupt fiscal tightening could still pressure growth toward contraction.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volumen
$33,280Enddatum
29. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Strong underlying U.S. economic momentum and broad consensus forecasts underpin the 98% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth in 2026. Official and private projections from the IMF, CBO, and others point to real GDP expansion of 2.0–2.3% for the year, supported by resilient consumer spending, robust business investment tied to AI, and productivity gains. Second-quarter 2026 GDP rose 1.5% annualized, with upward revisions to final sales to private domestic purchasers highlighting firmer demand, while Q3 nowcasts remain positive. Traders price in this baseline path amid contained recession risks, though tail scenarios such as sharp oil shocks, escalated tariffs, or abrupt fiscal tightening could still pressure growth toward contraction.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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