Recent eurozone inflation data showing a rise to 3.3% in August, driven primarily by energy price surges amid the ongoing Middle East conflict, has solidified trader expectations for a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate increase at the September 10 meeting. The central bank signaled openness to further tightening after its June hike, with oil and natural gas prices remaining elevated and headline pressures persisting despite contained core readings and limited second-round effects. This consensus reflects skin-in-the-game positioning ahead of updated staff projections. A sharp de-escalation in geopolitical tensions or unexpectedly soft incoming data could still alter the outcome, though such shifts appear improbable given the latest indicators.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertErhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 99.6%
Keine Änderung <1%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
$532,152 Vol.
$532,152 Vol.
10. Sep. 2026
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
<1%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
<1%
Keine Änderung
<1%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
100%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
<1%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 99.6%
Keine Änderung <1%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
$532,152 Vol.
$532,152 Vol.
10. Sep. 2026
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
$14,931 Vol.
<1%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
$42,419 Vol.
<1%
Keine Änderung
$196,782 Vol.
<1%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
$184,088 Vol.
100%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
$93,933 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent eurozone inflation data showing a rise to 3.3% in August, driven primarily by energy price surges amid the ongoing Middle East conflict, has solidified trader expectations for a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate increase at the September 10 meeting. The central bank signaled openness to further tightening after its June hike, with oil and natural gas prices remaining elevated and headline pressures persisting despite contained core readings and limited second-round effects. This consensus reflects skin-in-the-game positioning ahead of updated staff projections. A sharp de-escalation in geopolitical tensions or unexpectedly soft incoming data could still alter the outcome, though such shifts appear improbable given the latest indicators.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 17, 2026, 6:51 PM ET
Volumen
$532,152Enddatum
10. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 17, 2026, 6:51 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent eurozone inflation data showing a rise to 3.3% in August, driven primarily by energy price surges amid the ongoing Middle East conflict, has solidified trader expectations for a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate increase at the September 10 meeting. The central bank signaled openness to further tightening after its June hike, with oil and natural gas prices remaining elevated and headline pressures persisting despite contained core readings and limited second-round effects. This consensus reflects skin-in-the-game positioning ahead of updated staff projections. A sharp de-escalation in geopolitical tensions or unexpectedly soft incoming data could still alter the outcome, though such shifts appear improbable given the latest indicators.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volumen
$532,152Enddatum
10. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 17, 2026, 6:51 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Recent eurozone inflation data showing a rise to 3.3% in August, driven primarily by energy price surges amid the ongoing Middle East conflict, has solidified trader expectations for a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate increase at the September 10 meeting. The central bank signaled openness to further tightening after its June hike, with oil and natural gas prices remaining elevated and headline pressures persisting despite contained core readings and limited second-round effects. This consensus reflects skin-in-the-game positioning ahead of updated staff projections. A sharp de-escalation in geopolitical tensions or unexpectedly soft incoming data could still alter the outcome, though such shifts appear improbable given the latest indicators.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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