The recent surge in 10-year Treasury yields to around 4.83-4.85%—their highest levels since late 2023—reflects disappointment with the Treasury Department's $6 billion long-dated buyback operation on September 10, alongside elevated oil prices above $100 per barrel from Middle East supply disruptions. Strong demand at the September 9 auction, with a high yield of 4.834% and bid-to-cover of 2.71, provided limited relief as broader fiscal supply pressures, AI-related corporate issuance, and sticky core inflation sustain upward pressure on term premiums. Markets now price roughly 60% odds of a 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, though most economists anticipate a hold, with upcoming CPI and PPI releases serving as key near-term catalysts for shifts in rate-path expectations and yield levels through month-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$16,301 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
5,10 %
3%
5,05 %
8%
5,00 %
15%
4,97 %
16%
4,94 %
23%
4,91 %
32%
4,88 %
44%
4,85 %
74%
$16,301 Vol.
5,10 %
$2,606 Vol.
3%
5,05 %
$1,087 Vol.
8%
5,00 %
$1,365 Vol.
15%
4,97 %
$1,455 Vol.
16%
4,94 %
$1,249 Vol.
23%
4,91 %
$1,771 Vol.
32%
4,88 %
$1,527 Vol.
44%
4,85 %
$1,246 Vol.
74%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The recent surge in 10-year Treasury yields to around 4.83-4.85%—their highest levels since late 2023—reflects disappointment with the Treasury Department's $6 billion long-dated buyback operation on September 10, alongside elevated oil prices above $100 per barrel from Middle East supply disruptions. Strong demand at the September 9 auction, with a high yield of 4.834% and bid-to-cover of 2.71, provided limited relief as broader fiscal supply pressures, AI-related corporate issuance, and sticky core inflation sustain upward pressure on term premiums. Markets now price roughly 60% odds of a 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, though most economists anticipate a hold, with upcoming CPI and PPI releases serving as key near-term catalysts for shifts in rate-path expectations and yield levels through month-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Markt eröffnet: Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volumen
$16,301Enddatum
30. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The recent surge in 10-year Treasury yields to around 4.83-4.85%—their highest levels since late 2023—reflects disappointment with the Treasury Department's $6 billion long-dated buyback operation on September 10, alongside elevated oil prices above $100 per barrel from Middle East supply disruptions. Strong demand at the September 9 auction, with a high yield of 4.834% and bid-to-cover of 2.71, provided limited relief as broader fiscal supply pressures, AI-related corporate issuance, and sticky core inflation sustain upward pressure on term premiums. Markets now price roughly 60% odds of a 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, though most economists anticipate a hold, with upcoming CPI and PPI releases serving as key near-term catalysts for shifts in rate-path expectations and yield levels through month-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volumen
$16,301Enddatum
30. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...The recent surge in 10-year Treasury yields to around 4.83-4.85%—their highest levels since late 2023—reflects disappointment with the Treasury Department's $6 billion long-dated buyback operation on September 10, alongside elevated oil prices above $100 per barrel from Middle East supply disruptions. Strong demand at the September 9 auction, with a high yield of 4.834% and bid-to-cover of 2.71, provided limited relief as broader fiscal supply pressures, AI-related corporate issuance, and sticky core inflation sustain upward pressure on term premiums. Markets now price roughly 60% odds of a 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, though most economists anticipate a hold, with upcoming CPI and PPI releases serving as key near-term catalysts for shifts in rate-path expectations and yield levels through month-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen