The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed sharply to around 5.00-5.04% as of September 15, 2026—the highest since 2007—driven by surging oil prices above $100 amid Middle East supply risks, hotter-than-expected August CPI prints showing core inflation near 2.4% year-over-year, and resilient labor data. Markets now assign over 90% probability to a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 16-17 FOMC meeting, with traders pricing a firmer policy path that has reversed earlier September declines from the 4.77-4.81% range. This environment leaves limited room for further yield compression absent a dovish surprise or rapid de-escalation in energy markets, though any signal of policy restraint could test recent highs.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$35,480 Vol.
Unter 4,76 %
5%
Unter 4,73 %
5%
Unter 4,70 %
2%
Unter 4,67 %
3%
Unter 4,64 %
5%
Unter 4,61 %
3%
Unter 4,56 %
2%
Unter 4,51 %
3%
Unter 4,45 %
2%
$35,480 Vol.
Unter 4,76 %
5%
Unter 4,73 %
5%
Unter 4,70 %
2%
Unter 4,67 %
3%
Unter 4,64 %
5%
Unter 4,61 %
3%
Unter 4,56 %
2%
Unter 4,51 %
3%
Unter 4,45 %
2%
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Markt eröffnet: Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Abwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Abwickler
0x65070BE91...The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed sharply to around 5.00-5.04% as of September 15, 2026—the highest since 2007—driven by surging oil prices above $100 amid Middle East supply risks, hotter-than-expected August CPI prints showing core inflation near 2.4% year-over-year, and resilient labor data. Markets now assign over 90% probability to a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 16-17 FOMC meeting, with traders pricing a firmer policy path that has reversed earlier September declines from the 4.77-4.81% range. This environment leaves limited room for further yield compression absent a dovish surprise or rapid de-escalation in energy markets, though any signal of policy restraint could test recent highs.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert

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