The September 15-16 FOMC meeting represents the key near-term catalyst for Fed rate expectations, with markets assigning elevated implied probability to a 25 basis point hike amid resilient August payrolls of 162,000 and steady 4.1% unemployment. Inflation remains above target, with recent PCE readings near 3.7% headline and 3.3% core, supported by energy price pressures tied to Middle East developments. Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish communications, including references to “work to do” on price stability, contrast with the July 29 hold (9-3 vote) and have shifted trader sentiment, though a Reuters poll shows most economists still favor steady policy at the 3.50-3.75% range through year-end. The September 11 CPI release and FOMC dot plot updates will likely drive further repricing of the policy path.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$2,924,561 Vol.
8. Dez. 2026
September-Treffen
54%
Oktobersitzung
66%
$2,924,561 Vol.
September-Treffen
$1,336,363 Vol.
54%
Oktobersitzung
$628,198 Vol.
66%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The September 15-16 FOMC meeting represents the key near-term catalyst for Fed rate expectations, with markets assigning elevated implied probability to a 25 basis point hike amid resilient August payrolls of 162,000 and steady 4.1% unemployment. Inflation remains above target, with recent PCE readings near 3.7% headline and 3.3% core, supported by energy price pressures tied to Middle East developments. Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish communications, including references to “work to do” on price stability, contrast with the July 29 hold (9-3 vote) and have shifted trader sentiment, though a Reuters poll shows most economists still favor steady policy at the 3.50-3.75% range through year-end. The September 11 CPI release and FOMC dot plot updates will likely drive further repricing of the policy path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volumen
$2,924,561Enddatum
29. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The September 15-16 FOMC meeting represents the key near-term catalyst for Fed rate expectations, with markets assigning elevated implied probability to a 25 basis point hike amid resilient August payrolls of 162,000 and steady 4.1% unemployment. Inflation remains above target, with recent PCE readings near 3.7% headline and 3.3% core, supported by energy price pressures tied to Middle East developments. Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish communications, including references to “work to do” on price stability, contrast with the July 29 hold (9-3 vote) and have shifted trader sentiment, though a Reuters poll shows most economists still favor steady policy at the 3.50-3.75% range through year-end. The September 11 CPI release and FOMC dot plot updates will likely drive further repricing of the policy path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$2,924,561Enddatum
29. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...The September 15-16 FOMC meeting represents the key near-term catalyst for Fed rate expectations, with markets assigning elevated implied probability to a 25 basis point hike amid resilient August payrolls of 162,000 and steady 4.1% unemployment. Inflation remains above target, with recent PCE readings near 3.7% headline and 3.3% core, supported by energy price pressures tied to Middle East developments. Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish communications, including references to “work to do” on price stability, contrast with the July 29 hold (9-3 vote) and have shifted trader sentiment, though a Reuters poll shows most economists still favor steady policy at the 3.50-3.75% range through year-end. The September 11 CPI release and FOMC dot plot updates will likely drive further repricing of the policy path.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen