Recent Copernicus ERA5 and aligned agency data releases have anchored trader consensus on the 1.38–1.41°C bucket at 98.6% implied probability, reflecting observed August 2026 surface air temperatures consistent with ongoing background warming plus the early effects of a strengthening El Niño. Model runs and historical analogs support this positioning, as sea-surface temperatures outside the poles reached record August levels while land anomalies remained elevated. Market-implied odds treat the final resolution dataset as the authoritative benchmark, incorporating measurement uncertainty ranges typical of monthly global averages. Revisions in post-processing, baseline adjustments, or divergent results from other monitoring networks such as NOAA or Berkeley Earth represent the principal scenarios that could shift probabilities before settlement.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAugust 2026 Temperaturerhöhung (ºC) (HÖHERE STREIKS)
August 2026 Temperaturerhöhung (ºC) (HÖHERE STREIKS)
1.38–1.41ºC 98.6%
1.42–1.45ºC 1.9%
1.34–1.37ºC <1%
>1.45ºC <1%
$20,752 Vol.
$20,752 Vol.
31. Aug. 2026
<1.30ºC
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC
99%
1.42–1.45ºC
2%
>1.45ºC
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC 98.6%
1.42–1.45ºC 1.9%
1.34–1.37ºC <1%
>1.45ºC <1%
$20,752 Vol.
$20,752 Vol.
31. Aug. 2026
<1.30ºC
$657 Vol.
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
$1,462 Vol.
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
$3,138 Vol.
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC
$4,701 Vol.
99%
1.42–1.45ºC
$9,263 Vol.
2%
>1.45ºC
$1,531 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent Copernicus ERA5 and aligned agency data releases have anchored trader consensus on the 1.38–1.41°C bucket at 98.6% implied probability, reflecting observed August 2026 surface air temperatures consistent with ongoing background warming plus the early effects of a strengthening El Niño. Model runs and historical analogs support this positioning, as sea-surface temperatures outside the poles reached record August levels while land anomalies remained elevated. Market-implied odds treat the final resolution dataset as the authoritative benchmark, incorporating measurement uncertainty ranges typical of monthly global averages. Revisions in post-processing, baseline adjustments, or divergent results from other monitoring networks such as NOAA or Berkeley Earth represent the principal scenarios that could shift probabilities before settlement.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
Volumen
$20,752Enddatum
1. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent Copernicus ERA5 and aligned agency data releases have anchored trader consensus on the 1.38–1.41°C bucket at 98.6% implied probability, reflecting observed August 2026 surface air temperatures consistent with ongoing background warming plus the early effects of a strengthening El Niño. Model runs and historical analogs support this positioning, as sea-surface temperatures outside the poles reached record August levels while land anomalies remained elevated. Market-implied odds treat the final resolution dataset as the authoritative benchmark, incorporating measurement uncertainty ranges typical of monthly global averages. Revisions in post-processing, baseline adjustments, or divergent results from other monitoring networks such as NOAA or Berkeley Earth represent the principal scenarios that could shift probabilities before settlement.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$20,752Enddatum
1. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Recent Copernicus ERA5 and aligned agency data releases have anchored trader consensus on the 1.38–1.41°C bucket at 98.6% implied probability, reflecting observed August 2026 surface air temperatures consistent with ongoing background warming plus the early effects of a strengthening El Niño. Model runs and historical analogs support this positioning, as sea-surface temperatures outside the poles reached record August levels while land anomalies remained elevated. Market-implied odds treat the final resolution dataset as the authoritative benchmark, incorporating measurement uncertainty ranges typical of monthly global averages. Revisions in post-processing, baseline adjustments, or divergent results from other monitoring networks such as NOAA or Berkeley Earth represent the principal scenarios that could shift probabilities before settlement.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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