August 2026 global mean surface air temperature reached 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline according to Copernicus ERA5 data, the first such month since November 2025 and well above the >1.29°C threshold. This record anomaly, tying July 2023 as the warmest month observed, stemmed from sustained anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing combined with rapidly intensifying El Niño conditions that drove extra-polar ocean sea surface temperatures to their highest levels on record. Trader consensus at 100% on the dominant outcome reflects this verified observational margin. While minor dataset revisions or differing reference periods could theoretically narrow the gap, the multi-agency evidence and historical analogs make substantial downward adjustments improbable.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAugust 2026 Temperaturerhöhung (ºC)
August 2026 Temperaturerhöhung (ºC)
>1,29ºC 100.0%
<1,10ºC <1%
1,10–1,14ºC <1%
1,15–1,19ºC <1%
$15,902 Vol.
$15,902 Vol.
31. Juli 2026
<1,10ºC
Nein
1,10–1,14ºC
Nein
1,15–1,19ºC
Nein
1,20–1,24ºC
Nein
1,25–1,29ºC
Nein
>1,29ºC
Ja
>1,29ºC 100.0%
<1,10ºC <1%
1,10–1,14ºC <1%
1,15–1,19ºC <1%
$15,902 Vol.
$15,902 Vol.
31. Juli 2026
<1,10ºC
$877 Vol.
Nein
1,10–1,14ºC
$999 Vol.
Nein
1,15–1,19ºC
$1,121 Vol.
Nein
1,20–1,24ºC
$2,199 Vol.
Nein
1,25–1,29ºC
$4,398 Vol.
Nein
>1,29ºC
$6,308 Vol.
Ja
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.August 2026 global mean surface air temperature reached 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline according to Copernicus ERA5 data, the first such month since November 2025 and well above the >1.29°C threshold. This record anomaly, tying July 2023 as the warmest month observed, stemmed from sustained anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing combined with rapidly intensifying El Niño conditions that drove extra-polar ocean sea surface temperatures to their highest levels on record. Trader consensus at 100% on the dominant outcome reflects this verified observational margin. While minor dataset revisions or differing reference periods could theoretically narrow the gap, the multi-agency evidence and historical analogs make substantial downward adjustments improbable.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volumen
$15,902Enddatum
1. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.August 2026 global mean surface air temperature reached 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline according to Copernicus ERA5 data, the first such month since November 2025 and well above the >1.29°C threshold. This record anomaly, tying July 2023 as the warmest month observed, stemmed from sustained anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing combined with rapidly intensifying El Niño conditions that drove extra-polar ocean sea surface temperatures to their highest levels on record. Trader consensus at 100% on the dominant outcome reflects this verified observational margin. While minor dataset revisions or differing reference periods could theoretically narrow the gap, the multi-agency evidence and historical analogs make substantial downward adjustments improbable.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$15,902Enddatum
1. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
August 2026 global mean surface air temperature reached 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline according to Copernicus ERA5 data, the first such month since November 2025 and well above the >1.29°C threshold. This record anomaly, tying July 2023 as the warmest month observed, stemmed from sustained anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing combined with rapidly intensifying El Niño conditions that drove extra-polar ocean sea surface temperatures to their highest levels on record. Trader consensus at 100% on the dominant outcome reflects this verified observational margin. While minor dataset revisions or differing reference periods could theoretically narrow the gap, the multi-agency evidence and historical analogs make substantial downward adjustments improbable.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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