**OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch on September 3, 2026, quickly captured the top spot on Code Arena’s WebDev leaderboard with a 1,797 Elo score, edging Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 at 1,762.** This shift, driven by strong multi-step frontend agent performance in crowdsourced evaluations, has traders pricing Anthropic at 65.1% implied probability for second place by end-October. Claude models continue to lead broader coding benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified and Terminal-Bench, supported by consistent agentic tool use and long-context handling. Lower-priced Chinese models from Moonshot (Kimi) and Z.ai (GLM) remain competitive on the arena but trail in trader consensus. Key near-term catalysts include any October model refreshes or further leaderboard updates that could alter relative positioning among frontier labs.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic 65.3%
OpenAI 20%
SpaceXAI 4.8%
阿里巴巴 5%
$18,952 交易量
$18,952 交易量
2026-10-31
Anthropic
65%
OpenAI
20%
SpaceXAI
5%
阿里巴巴
5%
DeepSeek
3%
2%
Moonshot
2%
Meta
2%
Poolside
1%
Z.ai
1%
字节跳动
1%
小米
1%
Mistral
1%
腾讯
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Anthropic 65.3%
OpenAI 20%
SpaceXAI 4.8%
阿里巴巴 5%
$18,952 交易量
$18,952 交易量
2026-10-31
Anthropic
$3,005 交易量
65%
OpenAI
$1,351 交易量
20%
SpaceXAI
$585 交易量
5%
阿里巴巴
$1,846 交易量
5%
DeepSeek
$631 交易量
3%
$669 交易量
2%
Moonshot
$4,931 交易量
2%
Meta
$709 交易量
2%
Poolside
$969 交易量
1%
Z.ai
$645 交易量
1%
字节跳动
$660 交易量
1%
小米
$409 交易量
1%
Mistral
$794 交易量
1%
腾讯
$603 交易量
<1%
Thinky
$656 交易量
<1%
MiniMax
$489 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch on September 3, 2026, quickly captured the top spot on Code Arena’s WebDev leaderboard with a 1,797 Elo score, edging Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 at 1,762.** This shift, driven by strong multi-step frontend agent performance in crowdsourced evaluations, has traders pricing Anthropic at 65.1% implied probability for second place by end-October. Claude models continue to lead broader coding benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified and Terminal-Bench, supported by consistent agentic tool use and long-context handling. Lower-priced Chinese models from Moonshot (Kimi) and Z.ai (GLM) remain competitive on the arena but trail in trader consensus. Key near-term catalysts include any October model refreshes or further leaderboard updates that could alter relative positioning among frontier labs.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Aug 12, 2026, 7:56 PM ET
交易量
$18,952结束日期
2026-11-01市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 7:56 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch on September 3, 2026, quickly captured the top spot on Code Arena’s WebDev leaderboard with a 1,797 Elo score, edging Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 at 1,762.** This shift, driven by strong multi-step frontend agent performance in crowdsourced evaluations, has traders pricing Anthropic at 65.1% implied probability for second place by end-October. Claude models continue to lead broader coding benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified and Terminal-Bench, supported by consistent agentic tool use and long-context handling. Lower-priced Chinese models from Moonshot (Kimi) and Z.ai (GLM) remain competitive on the arena but trail in trader consensus. Key near-term catalysts include any October model refreshes or further leaderboard updates that could alter relative positioning among frontier labs.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$18,952结束日期
2026-11-01市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 7:56 PM ET**OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch on September 3, 2026, quickly captured the top spot on Code Arena’s WebDev leaderboard with a 1,797 Elo score, edging Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 at 1,762.** This shift, driven by strong multi-step frontend agent performance in crowdsourced evaluations, has traders pricing Anthropic at 65.1% implied probability for second place by end-October. Claude models continue to lead broader coding benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified and Terminal-Bench, supported by consistent agentic tool use and long-context handling. Lower-priced Chinese models from Moonshot (Kimi) and Z.ai (GLM) remain competitive on the arena but trail in trader consensus. Key near-term catalysts include any October model refreshes or further leaderboard updates that could alter relative positioning among frontier labs.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题