Morena maintains a structural lead in Sonora party identification and general election intention ahead of the June 2027 gubernatorial vote, with recent June–August 2026 surveys showing the ruling alliance 15–25 points ahead of PAN and other opposition forces. Within Morena, Lorenia Valles Sampedro and Javier Lamarque Cano remain the closest internal contenders, while Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas leads Movimiento Ciudadano preference and Antonio Astiazarán Gutiérrez tops PAN polling. These patterns explain the tight trader consensus between Valles and Colosio as the primary general-election matchup, with lower odds for other declared or potential aspirants. The race stays competitive because the Morena nomination process is unresolved, opposition parties remain fragmented, and undecided voters exceed 10–20% in most measurements. Scheduled internal selections and further polling releases through late 2026 could shift positioning before formal campaigning begins.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Lorenia Valles Sampedro 43%
Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas 38.1%
Javier Lamarque Cano 8%
Antonio Astiazarán Gutiérrez 5.1%
$34,625 交易量
$34,625 交易量
Lorenia Valles Sampedro
43%
Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas
38%
Javier Lamarque Cano
8%
Antonio Astiazarán Gutiérrez
5%
Ernesto Gándara Camou
4%
Sylvana Beltrones Sánchez
4%
Natalia Rivera Grijalva
4%
Manuel Scott Sánchez
2%
Lilly Téllez García
2%
Froylán Gámez Gamboa
2%
Heriberto Aguilar Castillo
1%
María Dolores del Río Sánchez
1%
Víctor Hugo Celaya
1%
Guadalupe María Soto
1%
Rogelio Díaz Brown
1%
Omar del Valle Colosio
1%
Damián Zepeda Vidales
<1%
Patricia Mercado Castro
<1%
Célida Teresa López Cárdenas
<1%
Lorenia Valles Sampedro 43%
Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas 38.1%
Javier Lamarque Cano 8%
Antonio Astiazarán Gutiérrez 5.1%
$34,625 交易量
$34,625 交易量
Lorenia Valles Sampedro
43%
Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas
38%
Javier Lamarque Cano
8%
Antonio Astiazarán Gutiérrez
5%
Ernesto Gándara Camou
4%
Sylvana Beltrones Sánchez
4%
Natalia Rivera Grijalva
4%
Manuel Scott Sánchez
2%
Lilly Téllez García
2%
Froylán Gámez Gamboa
2%
Heriberto Aguilar Castillo
1%
María Dolores del Río Sánchez
1%
Víctor Hugo Celaya
1%
Guadalupe María Soto
1%
Rogelio Díaz Brown
1%
Omar del Valle Colosio
1%
Damián Zepeda Vidales
<1%
Patricia Mercado Castro
<1%
Célida Teresa López Cárdenas
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sonora gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sonora and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sonora and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
市场开放时间： Aug 5, 2026, 6:49 AM ET
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sonora gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sonora and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sonora and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Morena maintains a structural lead in Sonora party identification and general election intention ahead of the June 2027 gubernatorial vote, with recent June–August 2026 surveys showing the ruling alliance 15–25 points ahead of PAN and other opposition forces. Within Morena, Lorenia Valles Sampedro and Javier Lamarque Cano remain the closest internal contenders, while Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas leads Movimiento Ciudadano preference and Antonio Astiazarán Gutiérrez tops PAN polling. These patterns explain the tight trader consensus between Valles and Colosio as the primary general-election matchup, with lower odds for other declared or potential aspirants. The race stays competitive because the Morena nomination process is unresolved, opposition parties remain fragmented, and undecided voters exceed 10–20% in most measurements. Scheduled internal selections and further polling releases through late 2026 could shift positioning before formal campaigning begins.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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