Russia's Supreme Court ruling on August 10, 2026, removed Yabloko from the State Duma ballot after a Rodina party lawsuit citing procedural and financing issues, reversing an earlier Central Election Commission registration. This exclusion, combined with the party's consistent failure to reach the 5 percent proportional threshold in national elections since 1999, underpins trader consensus at 99.4 percent probability of "No." Yabloko has typically polled near 1-2 percent amid documented administrative restrictions, limited media access, and electoral rules favoring established parties. Even with pockets of urban support for its pro-ceasefire platform, systemic factors make clearing the threshold improbable. Late reversals or appeals remain theoretically possible before the September 18-20 vote but lack precedent in recent cycles.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
<1% 概率
$615,537 交易量
$615,537 交易量
2026-09-20
是
<1% 概率
$615,537 交易量
$615,537 交易量
2026-09-20
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Russia's Supreme Court ruling on August 10, 2026, removed Yabloko from the State Duma ballot after a Rodina party lawsuit citing procedural and financing issues, reversing an earlier Central Election Commission registration. This exclusion, combined with the party's consistent failure to reach the 5 percent proportional threshold in national elections since 1999, underpins trader consensus at 99.4 percent probability of "No." Yabloko has typically polled near 1-2 percent amid documented administrative restrictions, limited media access, and electoral rules favoring established parties. Even with pockets of urban support for its pro-ceasefire platform, systemic factors make clearing the threshold improbable. Late reversals or appeals remain theoretically possible before the September 18-20 vote but lack precedent in recent cycles.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
市场开放时间： Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ET
交易量
$615,537结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ETParliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Russia's Supreme Court ruling on August 10, 2026, removed Yabloko from the State Duma ballot after a Rodina party lawsuit citing procedural and financing issues, reversing an earlier Central Election Commission registration. This exclusion, combined with the party's consistent failure to reach the 5 percent proportional threshold in national elections since 1999, underpins trader consensus at 99.4 percent probability of "No." Yabloko has typically polled near 1-2 percent amid documented administrative restrictions, limited media access, and electoral rules favoring established parties. Even with pockets of urban support for its pro-ceasefire platform, systemic factors make clearing the threshold improbable. Late reversals or appeals remain theoretically possible before the September 18-20 vote but lack precedent in recent cycles.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
交易量
$615,537结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ETRussia's Supreme Court ruling on August 10, 2026, removed Yabloko from the State Duma ballot after a Rodina party lawsuit citing procedural and financing issues, reversing an earlier Central Election Commission registration. This exclusion, combined with the party's consistent failure to reach the 5 percent proportional threshold in national elections since 1999, underpins trader consensus at 99.4 percent probability of "No." Yabloko has typically polled near 1-2 percent amid documented administrative restrictions, limited media access, and electoral rules favoring established parties. Even with pockets of urban support for its pro-ceasefire platform, systemic factors make clearing the threshold improbable. Late reversals or appeals remain theoretically possible before the September 18-20 vote but lack precedent in recent cycles.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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