Recent polling for Israel's October 27 Knesset election projects Otzma Yehudit, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, at 7-9 seats across multiple surveys, a range that aligns with roughly 6-7.5% of the national vote after accounting for the 3.25% threshold and seat allocation formulas. Final candidate lists submitted in early September included high-profile additions such as former Likud MK Tally Gotliv, which some analysts view as a potential boost to the party's appeal among dissatisfied right-wing voters. However, the overall political map remains fragmented, with competition from Religious Zionism-Zehut and other lists, plus uncertain turnout in key blocs, keeping projections variable. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to the 4.5-6.5% buckets because modest shifts in right-wing consolidation or late campaign dynamics could easily move the result within or across those narrow ranges before election day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于5.5-6.5% 41%
6.5-7.5% 31%
4.5-5.5% 30%
7.5%及以上 28%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
低于4.5%
26%
4.5-5.5%
30%
5.5-6.5%
32%
6.5-7.5%
31%
7.5%及以上
28%
5.5-6.5% 41%
6.5-7.5% 31%
4.5-5.5% 30%
7.5%及以上 28%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
低于4.5%
$13 交易量
26%
4.5-5.5%
$13 交易量
30%
5.5-6.5%
$26 交易量
32%
6.5-7.5%
$13 交易量
31%
7.5%及以上
$13 交易量
28%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling for Israel's October 27 Knesset election projects Otzma Yehudit, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, at 7-9 seats across multiple surveys, a range that aligns with roughly 6-7.5% of the national vote after accounting for the 3.25% threshold and seat allocation formulas. Final candidate lists submitted in early September included high-profile additions such as former Likud MK Tally Gotliv, which some analysts view as a potential boost to the party's appeal among dissatisfied right-wing voters. However, the overall political map remains fragmented, with competition from Religious Zionism-Zehut and other lists, plus uncertain turnout in key blocs, keeping projections variable. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to the 4.5-6.5% buckets because modest shifts in right-wing consolidation or late campaign dynamics could easily move the result within or across those narrow ranges before election day.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
市场开放时间： Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
交易量
$79结束日期
2026-10-27市场开放时间
Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ETLegislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling for Israel's October 27 Knesset election projects Otzma Yehudit, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, at 7-9 seats across multiple surveys, a range that aligns with roughly 6-7.5% of the national vote after accounting for the 3.25% threshold and seat allocation formulas. Final candidate lists submitted in early September included high-profile additions such as former Likud MK Tally Gotliv, which some analysts view as a potential boost to the party's appeal among dissatisfied right-wing voters. However, the overall political map remains fragmented, with competition from Religious Zionism-Zehut and other lists, plus uncertain turnout in key blocs, keeping projections variable. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to the 4.5-6.5% buckets because modest shifts in right-wing consolidation or late campaign dynamics could easily move the result within or across those narrow ranges before election day.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
交易量
$79结束日期
2026-10-27市场开放时间
Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ETRecent polling for Israel's October 27 Knesset election projects Otzma Yehudit, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, at 7-9 seats across multiple surveys, a range that aligns with roughly 6-7.5% of the national vote after accounting for the 3.25% threshold and seat allocation formulas. Final candidate lists submitted in early September included high-profile additions such as former Likud MK Tally Gotliv, which some analysts view as a potential boost to the party's appeal among dissatisfied right-wing voters. However, the overall political map remains fragmented, with competition from Religious Zionism-Zehut and other lists, plus uncertain turnout in key blocs, keeping projections variable. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to the 4.5-6.5% buckets because modest shifts in right-wing consolidation or late campaign dynamics could easily move the result within or across those narrow ranges before election day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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