Recent polling averages place Amcha Yisrael, the right-wing party launched in late August 2026 by retired Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter, near Israel’s 3.25 percent electoral threshold, with most surveys projecting four seats or fewer. The tight distribution of market probabilities around 3–5 percent reflects ongoing vote splitting among nationalist parties, including Likud, Otzma Yehudit, and Religious Zionism, alongside Netanyahu’s repeated warnings that small lists risk wasting right-wing ballots. The party’s slate, featuring Arab-Israeli activist Yoseph Haddad in the second position, has not yet produced sustained momentum in subsequent surveys, while competing new lists such as the Reservists-New Economic Party add further uncertainty. Traders appear to weigh the risk that Amcha Yisrael either consolidates disappointed voters or falls short, with separation likely hinging on final-week consolidation signals or shifts in right-wing turnout before the October election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于3.25-4% 46%
4-5% 22%
2.5-3.25% 19%
少于2.5% 15%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
少于2.5%
15%
2.5-3.25%
25%
3.25-4%
46%
4-5%
30%
5%+
14%
3.25-4% 46%
4-5% 22%
2.5-3.25% 19%
少于2.5% 15%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
少于2.5%
$221 交易量
15%
2.5-3.25%
$36 交易量
25%
3.25-4%
$59 交易量
46%
4-5%
$18 交易量
30%
5%+
$96 交易量
14%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling averages place Amcha Yisrael, the right-wing party launched in late August 2026 by retired Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter, near Israel’s 3.25 percent electoral threshold, with most surveys projecting four seats or fewer. The tight distribution of market probabilities around 3–5 percent reflects ongoing vote splitting among nationalist parties, including Likud, Otzma Yehudit, and Religious Zionism, alongside Netanyahu’s repeated warnings that small lists risk wasting right-wing ballots. The party’s slate, featuring Arab-Israeli activist Yoseph Haddad in the second position, has not yet produced sustained momentum in subsequent surveys, while competing new lists such as the Reservists-New Economic Party add further uncertainty. Traders appear to weigh the risk that Amcha Yisrael either consolidates disappointed voters or falls short, with separation likely hinging on final-week consolidation signals or shifts in right-wing turnout before the October election.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
市场开放时间： Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ET
交易量
$431结束日期
2026-11-30市场开放时间
Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ETLegislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling averages place Amcha Yisrael, the right-wing party launched in late August 2026 by retired Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter, near Israel’s 3.25 percent electoral threshold, with most surveys projecting four seats or fewer. The tight distribution of market probabilities around 3–5 percent reflects ongoing vote splitting among nationalist parties, including Likud, Otzma Yehudit, and Religious Zionism, alongside Netanyahu’s repeated warnings that small lists risk wasting right-wing ballots. The party’s slate, featuring Arab-Israeli activist Yoseph Haddad in the second position, has not yet produced sustained momentum in subsequent surveys, while competing new lists such as the Reservists-New Economic Party add further uncertainty. Traders appear to weigh the risk that Amcha Yisrael either consolidates disappointed voters or falls short, with separation likely hinging on final-week consolidation signals or shifts in right-wing turnout before the October election.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
交易量
$431结束日期
2026-11-30市场开放时间
Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ETRecent polling averages place Amcha Yisrael, the right-wing party launched in late August 2026 by retired Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter, near Israel’s 3.25 percent electoral threshold, with most surveys projecting four seats or fewer. The tight distribution of market probabilities around 3–5 percent reflects ongoing vote splitting among nationalist parties, including Likud, Otzma Yehudit, and Religious Zionism, alongside Netanyahu’s repeated warnings that small lists risk wasting right-wing ballots. The party’s slate, featuring Arab-Israeli activist Yoseph Haddad in the second position, has not yet produced sustained momentum in subsequent surveys, while competing new lists such as the Reservists-New Economic Party add further uncertainty. Traders appear to weigh the risk that Amcha Yisrael either consolidates disappointed voters or falls short, with separation likely hinging on final-week consolidation signals or shifts in right-wing turnout before the October election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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