Raphaël Glucksmann leads the 2026 French Socialist Party presidential primary first round at 83% implied probability, well ahead of Olivier Faure at 14% and lower shares for Jérôme Guedj, Ségolène Royal, Emmanuel Maurel, Philippe Brun and others. The two-round electronic vote, open to party members and paying participants, is scheduled for 9–10 October. Glucksmann’s position stems from stronger national polling among social-democratic voters, endorsements including from former nominee Anne Hidalgo, and emphasis on environmental transformation, reindustrialization and European integration. Faure’s late August entry introduced a direct contest with the Socialist Party leader, yet recent coverage continues to frame Glucksmann as the frontrunner. A scheduled debate on 1 October and final candidate declarations by 15 September represent the main near-term catalysts ahead of the first-round ballot.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于拉斐尔·格鲁克斯曼 85%
奥利维耶·福尔 14%
杰罗姆·格日 2.3%
埃马纽埃尔·莫雷尔 2.3%
最新
最新
2026-10-10
拉斐尔·格鲁克斯曼
85%
奥利维耶·福尔
14%
杰罗姆·格日
2%
埃马纽埃尔·莫雷尔
2%
塞戈莱娜·罗亚尔
2%
菲利普·布伦
1%
拉斐尔·格鲁克斯曼 85%
奥利维耶·福尔 14%
杰罗姆·格日 2.3%
埃马纽埃尔·莫雷尔 2.3%
最新
最新
2026-10-10
拉斐尔·格鲁克斯曼
$1,581 交易量
85%
奥利维耶·福尔
$296 交易量
14%
杰罗姆·格日
$226 交易量
2%
埃马纽埃尔·莫雷尔
$187 交易量
2%
塞戈莱娜·罗亚尔
$195 交易量
2%
菲利普·布伦
$140 交易量
1%
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.Raphaël Glucksmann leads the 2026 French Socialist Party presidential primary first round at 83% implied probability, well ahead of Olivier Faure at 14% and lower shares for Jérôme Guedj, Ségolène Royal, Emmanuel Maurel, Philippe Brun and others. The two-round electronic vote, open to party members and paying participants, is scheduled for 9–10 October. Glucksmann’s position stems from stronger national polling among social-democratic voters, endorsements including from former nominee Anne Hidalgo, and emphasis on environmental transformation, reindustrialization and European integration. Faure’s late August entry introduced a direct contest with the Socialist Party leader, yet recent coverage continues to frame Glucksmann as the frontrunner. A scheduled debate on 1 October and final candidate declarations by 15 September represent the main near-term catalysts ahead of the first-round ballot.
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
市场开放时间： Sep 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
交易量
$2,624结束日期
2026-10-10市场开放时间
Sep 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETThe Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.Raphaël Glucksmann leads the 2026 French Socialist Party presidential primary first round at 83% implied probability, well ahead of Olivier Faure at 14% and lower shares for Jérôme Guedj, Ségolène Royal, Emmanuel Maurel, Philippe Brun and others. The two-round electronic vote, open to party members and paying participants, is scheduled for 9–10 October. Glucksmann’s position stems from stronger national polling among social-democratic voters, endorsements including from former nominee Anne Hidalgo, and emphasis on environmental transformation, reindustrialization and European integration. Faure’s late August entry introduced a direct contest with the Socialist Party leader, yet recent coverage continues to frame Glucksmann as the frontrunner. A scheduled debate on 1 October and final candidate declarations by 15 September represent the main near-term catalysts ahead of the first-round ballot.
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
交易量
$2,624结束日期
2026-10-10市场开放时间
Sep 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETRaphaël Glucksmann leads the 2026 French Socialist Party presidential primary first round at 83% implied probability, well ahead of Olivier Faure at 14% and lower shares for Jérôme Guedj, Ségolène Royal, Emmanuel Maurel, Philippe Brun and others. The two-round electronic vote, open to party members and paying participants, is scheduled for 9–10 October. Glucksmann’s position stems from stronger national polling among social-democratic voters, endorsements including from former nominee Anne Hidalgo, and emphasis on environmental transformation, reindustrialization and European integration. Faure’s late August entry introduced a direct contest with the Socialist Party leader, yet recent coverage continues to frame Glucksmann as the frontrunner. A scheduled debate on 1 October and final candidate declarations by 15 September represent the main near-term catalysts ahead of the first-round ballot.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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