Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republican governor seeking re-election, holds a dominant position in trader assessments for the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial race. Recent Quaest polling shows him at 42% in the first round against Fernando Haddad at 27%, with the margin widening to 15 points amid gains among independent voters and sustained government approval near 63%. A broad coalition backing his ticket and limited support for alternatives such as Erika Hilton further reinforce this edge. The implied probability reflected in current pricing aligns with these trends and historical re-election patterns for popular incumbents. Scenarios that could still alter outcomes include major late-campaign developments, shifts in turnout, or unforeseen legal or health events before the October vote.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯 98.2%
费尔南多·哈达德 <1%
埃丽卡·希尔顿 <1%
金·卡塔古里 <1%
$308,591 交易量
$308,591 交易量
2026-10-03
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯
98%
费尔南多·哈达德
1%
埃丽卡·希尔顿
1%
金·卡塔古里
<1%
马尔西奥·弗兰萨
<1%
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯 98.2%
费尔南多·哈达德 <1%
埃丽卡·希尔顿 <1%
金·卡塔古里 <1%
$308,591 交易量
$308,591 交易量
2026-10-03
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯
$146,132 交易量
98%
费尔南多·哈达德
$51,461 交易量
1%
埃丽卡·希尔顿
$23,068 交易量
1%
金·卡塔古里
$77,262 交易量
<1%
马尔西奥·弗兰萨
$10,668 交易量
<1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republican governor seeking re-election, holds a dominant position in trader assessments for the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial race. Recent Quaest polling shows him at 42% in the first round against Fernando Haddad at 27%, with the margin widening to 15 points amid gains among independent voters and sustained government approval near 63%. A broad coalition backing his ticket and limited support for alternatives such as Erika Hilton further reinforce this edge. The implied probability reflected in current pricing aligns with these trends and historical re-election patterns for popular incumbents. Scenarios that could still alter outcomes include major late-campaign developments, shifts in turnout, or unforeseen legal or health events before the October vote.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市场开放时间： Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
交易量
$308,591结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETThe São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republican governor seeking re-election, holds a dominant position in trader assessments for the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial race. Recent Quaest polling shows him at 42% in the first round against Fernando Haddad at 27%, with the margin widening to 15 points amid gains among independent voters and sustained government approval near 63%. A broad coalition backing his ticket and limited support for alternatives such as Erika Hilton further reinforce this edge. The implied probability reflected in current pricing aligns with these trends and historical re-election patterns for popular incumbents. Scenarios that could still alter outcomes include major late-campaign developments, shifts in turnout, or unforeseen legal or health events before the October vote.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$308,591结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETTarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republican governor seeking re-election, holds a dominant position in trader assessments for the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial race. Recent Quaest polling shows him at 42% in the first round against Fernando Haddad at 27%, with the margin widening to 15 points amid gains among independent voters and sustained government approval near 63%. A broad coalition backing his ticket and limited support for alternatives such as Erika Hilton further reinforce this edge. The implied probability reflected in current pricing aligns with these trends and historical re-election patterns for popular incumbents. Scenarios that could still alter outcomes include major late-campaign developments, shifts in turnout, or unforeseen legal or health events before the October vote.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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