Lula holds a commanding 97.3% implied probability of finishing first in Sergipe’s 2026 presidential first round, reflecting the state’s consistent alignment with the Workers’ Party in Northeast Brazil. Incumbent advantages, established voter bases in the region, and limited opposition organization at the state level underpin trader consensus. Historical patterns show strong first-round margins for PT candidates in Sergipe, with recent national polling trends reinforcing rather than eroding that position. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unified opposition turnout, significant shifts in federal resource allocation affecting local economies, or late campaign developments that mobilize non-PT voters. Market pricing treats these as low-probability outcomes within the current resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于卢拉 97.2%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 1.2%
克拉丽安娜·巴拉奥 1.1%
赫尔茨·迪亚斯 <1%
$16,360 交易量
$16,360 交易量
2026-10-04
卢拉
97%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗
1%
克拉丽安娜·巴拉奥
1%
赫尔茨·迪亚斯
1%
鲁伊·科斯塔·皮门塔
1%
雷南·桑托斯
1%
罗纳尔多·卡亚多
1%
帕布洛·马沙尔
1%
作家奥古斯托·库里
<1%
兽医威尔逊·格拉西
<1%
泽马
<1%
埃德米尔松·科斯塔
<1%
萨玛拉
<1%
卢拉 97.2%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 1.2%
克拉丽安娜·巴拉奥 1.1%
赫尔茨·迪亚斯 <1%
$16,360 交易量
$16,360 交易量
2026-10-04
卢拉
$8,854 交易量
97%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗
$832 交易量
1%
克拉丽安娜·巴拉奥
$1,169 交易量
1%
赫尔茨·迪亚斯
$588 交易量
1%
鲁伊·科斯塔·皮门塔
$594 交易量
1%
雷南·桑托斯
$566 交易量
1%
罗纳尔多·卡亚多
$588 交易量
1%
帕布洛·马沙尔
$534 交易量
1%
作家奥古斯托·库里
$556 交易量
<1%
兽医威尔逊·格拉西
$564 交易量
<1%
泽马
$515 交易量
<1%
埃德米尔松·科斯塔
$529 交易量
<1%
萨玛拉
$469 交易量
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds a commanding 97.3% implied probability of finishing first in Sergipe’s 2026 presidential first round, reflecting the state’s consistent alignment with the Workers’ Party in Northeast Brazil. Incumbent advantages, established voter bases in the region, and limited opposition organization at the state level underpin trader consensus. Historical patterns show strong first-round margins for PT candidates in Sergipe, with recent national polling trends reinforcing rather than eroding that position. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unified opposition turnout, significant shifts in federal resource allocation affecting local economies, or late campaign developments that mobilize non-PT voters. Market pricing treats these as low-probability outcomes within the current resolution window.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市场开放时间： Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET
交易量
$16,360结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETA presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds a commanding 97.3% implied probability of finishing first in Sergipe’s 2026 presidential first round, reflecting the state’s consistent alignment with the Workers’ Party in Northeast Brazil. Incumbent advantages, established voter bases in the region, and limited opposition organization at the state level underpin trader consensus. Historical patterns show strong first-round margins for PT candidates in Sergipe, with recent national polling trends reinforcing rather than eroding that position. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unified opposition turnout, significant shifts in federal resource allocation affecting local economies, or late campaign developments that mobilize non-PT voters. Market pricing treats these as low-probability outcomes within the current resolution window.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$16,360结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETLula holds a commanding 97.3% implied probability of finishing first in Sergipe’s 2026 presidential first round, reflecting the state’s consistent alignment with the Workers’ Party in Northeast Brazil. Incumbent advantages, established voter bases in the region, and limited opposition organization at the state level underpin trader consensus. Historical patterns show strong first-round margins for PT candidates in Sergipe, with recent national polling trends reinforcing rather than eroding that position. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unified opposition turnout, significant shifts in federal resource allocation affecting local economies, or late campaign developments that mobilize non-PT voters. Market pricing treats these as low-probability outcomes within the current resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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