Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading with support in the high 30s to low 40s percent, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro in the low to mid-30s, and smaller shares for Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and others. This distribution leaves every contender well below the absolute majority of valid votes required to win outright and avoid a runoff. The multi-candidate field and mutual rejection between the main contenders continue a pattern seen in every presidential contest since 2002. With the election weeks away and no major consolidation of support evident, traders assign high probability to a second round on October 25.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
8% 概率
$224,515 交易量
$224,515 交易量
2026-10-03
是
8% 概率
$224,515 交易量
$224,515 交易量
2026-10-03
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading with support in the high 30s to low 40s percent, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro in the low to mid-30s, and smaller shares for Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and others. This distribution leaves every contender well below the absolute majority of valid votes required to win outright and avoid a runoff. The multi-candidate field and mutual rejection between the main contenders continue a pattern seen in every presidential contest since 2002. With the election weeks away and no major consolidation of support evident, traders assign high probability to a second round on October 25.
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市场开放时间： Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ET
交易量
$224,515结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ETPresidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading with support in the high 30s to low 40s percent, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro in the low to mid-30s, and smaller shares for Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and others. This distribution leaves every contender well below the absolute majority of valid votes required to win outright and avoid a runoff. The multi-candidate field and mutual rejection between the main contenders continue a pattern seen in every presidential contest since 2002. With the election weeks away and no major consolidation of support evident, traders assign high probability to a second round on October 25.
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$224,515结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ETRecent polling for Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading with support in the high 30s to low 40s percent, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro in the low to mid-30s, and smaller shares for Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and others. This distribution leaves every contender well below the absolute majority of valid votes required to win outright and avoid a runoff. The multi-candidate field and mutual rejection between the main contenders continue a pattern seen in every presidential contest since 2002. With the election weeks away and no major consolidation of support evident, traders assign high probability to a second round on October 25.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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