Sergio Moro (PL) holds an 83.5% implied probability of winning the Paraná gubernatorial race on October 4, 2026, with a possible runoff on October 25, reflecting sustained leads in multiple late-August and early-September polls showing him at 35–45% in the first round. He maintains double-digit advantages over Requião Filho (PDT) and Sandro Alex (PSD), the latter backed by term-limited incumbent Ratinho Júnior (PSD) whose administration enjoys high approval. Recent catalysts include the PL's August convention formalizing Moro's candidacy with Edson Vasconcelos as running mate, alongside ongoing debates and the start of free electoral broadcasts. Sandro Alex at 15.5% benefits from state resources and Rafael Greca's vice slot, yet polling gaps have not narrowed meaningfully. Lower probabilities for other listed candidates align with their sub-2% shares across surveys. Trader consensus prices these dynamics ahead of the first-round vote.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于塞尔吉奥·莫罗 84%
桑德罗·亚历克斯 16%
亚历山大·库里 <1%
恩尼奥·维里 <1%
$139,531 交易量
$139,531 交易量
2026-10-04
塞尔吉奥·莫罗
84%
桑德罗·亚历克斯
16%
亚历山大·库里
<1%
恩尼奥·维里
<1%
Luiz França
<1%
拉斐尔·格雷卡
<1%
Requião Filho
<1%
古托·席尔瓦
<1%
贝托·里查
<1%
塞尔吉奥·莫罗 84%
桑德罗·亚历克斯 16%
亚历山大·库里 <1%
恩尼奥·维里 <1%
$139,531 交易量
$139,531 交易量
2026-10-04
塞尔吉奥·莫罗
$91,488 交易量
84%
桑德罗·亚历克斯
$13,651 交易量
16%
亚历山大·库里
$4,452 交易量
<1%
恩尼奥·维里
$3,396 交易量
<1%
Luiz França
$2,900 交易量
<1%
拉斐尔·格雷卡
$3,403 交易量
<1%
Requião Filho
$14,593 交易量
<1%
古托·席尔瓦
$3,022 交易量
<1%
贝托·里查
$2,625 交易量
<1%
The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Sergio Moro (PL) holds an 83.5% implied probability of winning the Paraná gubernatorial race on October 4, 2026, with a possible runoff on October 25, reflecting sustained leads in multiple late-August and early-September polls showing him at 35–45% in the first round. He maintains double-digit advantages over Requião Filho (PDT) and Sandro Alex (PSD), the latter backed by term-limited incumbent Ratinho Júnior (PSD) whose administration enjoys high approval. Recent catalysts include the PL's August convention formalizing Moro's candidacy with Edson Vasconcelos as running mate, alongside ongoing debates and the start of free electoral broadcasts. Sandro Alex at 15.5% benefits from state resources and Rafael Greca's vice slot, yet polling gaps have not narrowed meaningfully. Lower probabilities for other listed candidates align with their sub-2% shares across surveys. Trader consensus prices these dynamics ahead of the first-round vote.
The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市场开放时间： Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ET
交易量
$139,531结束日期
2026-10-05市场开放时间
Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ETThe Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Sergio Moro (PL) holds an 83.5% implied probability of winning the Paraná gubernatorial race on October 4, 2026, with a possible runoff on October 25, reflecting sustained leads in multiple late-August and early-September polls showing him at 35–45% in the first round. He maintains double-digit advantages over Requião Filho (PDT) and Sandro Alex (PSD), the latter backed by term-limited incumbent Ratinho Júnior (PSD) whose administration enjoys high approval. Recent catalysts include the PL's August convention formalizing Moro's candidacy with Edson Vasconcelos as running mate, alongside ongoing debates and the start of free electoral broadcasts. Sandro Alex at 15.5% benefits from state resources and Rafael Greca's vice slot, yet polling gaps have not narrowed meaningfully. Lower probabilities for other listed candidates align with their sub-2% shares across surveys. Trader consensus prices these dynamics ahead of the first-round vote.
The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$139,531结束日期
2026-10-05市场开放时间
Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ETSergio Moro (PL) holds an 83.5% implied probability of winning the Paraná gubernatorial race on October 4, 2026, with a possible runoff on October 25, reflecting sustained leads in multiple late-August and early-September polls showing him at 35–45% in the first round. He maintains double-digit advantages over Requião Filho (PDT) and Sandro Alex (PSD), the latter backed by term-limited incumbent Ratinho Júnior (PSD) whose administration enjoys high approval. Recent catalysts include the PL's August convention formalizing Moro's candidacy with Edson Vasconcelos as running mate, alongside ongoing debates and the start of free electoral broadcasts. Sandro Alex at 15.5% benefits from state resources and Rafael Greca's vice slot, yet polling gaps have not narrowed meaningfully. Lower probabilities for other listed candidates align with their sub-2% shares across surveys. Trader consensus prices these dynamics ahead of the first-round vote.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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