The Pernambuco Senate race for the two seats remains highly competitive with roughly one month until the October 4 vote, as recent Quaest polling shows Marília Arraes (PDT) at 17%, incumbent Humberto Costa (PT) at 14%, Mendonça Filho (PL) at 11%, and Eduardo da Fonte (PP) at 7% in consolidated first-and-second preferences—within the three-point margin of error. High undecided (27%) and blank/null (18%) shares, combined with voter sensitivity to the parallel gubernatorial contest between Raquel Lyra (PSD) and João Campos (PSB), sustain volatility and limit separation among the top contenders. Traders price Costa and Mendonça Filho as the closest for second place, reflecting their established bases, coalition alignments, and limited recent polling movement, while Arraes appears more anchored toward first. Late campaign shifts on security policy or turnout among left-leaning and right-leaning blocs could still reorder the finish.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于洪贝托·科斯塔 43%
Mendonça Filho 42%
马丽利娅·阿拉埃斯 12.2%
图利奥·加德利亚 3.0%
$30,979 交易量
$30,979 交易量
2026-10-04
洪贝托·科斯塔
43%
Mendonça Filho
42%
马丽利娅·阿拉埃斯
12%
图利奥·加德利亚
3%
爱德华多·达丰特
2%
萨缪尔·蒂莫泰奥
<1%
马里亚诺·马塞多
<1%
吉尔万·科斯塔牧师
<1%
卡洛斯·桑塔安娜
<1%
保罗·鲁本·圣地亚哥
<1%
戈雷特·比图
<1%
Mailson da Silva Neto
<1%
洪贝托·科斯塔 43%
Mendonça Filho 42%
马丽利娅·阿拉埃斯 12.2%
图利奥·加德利亚 3.0%
$30,979 交易量
$30,979 交易量
2026-10-04
洪贝托·科斯塔
$10,072 交易量
43%
Mendonça Filho
$8,246 交易量
42%
马丽利娅·阿拉埃斯
$5,262 交易量
12%
图利奥·加德利亚
$1,430 交易量
3%
爱德华多·达丰特
$1,511 交易量
2%
萨缪尔·蒂莫泰奥
$834 交易量
<1%
马里亚诺·马塞多
$806 交易量
<1%
吉尔万·科斯塔牧师
$773 交易量
<1%
卡洛斯·桑塔安娜
$494 交易量
<1%
保罗·鲁本·圣地亚哥
$490 交易量
<1%
戈雷特·比图
$629 交易量
<1%
Mailson da Silva Neto
$433 交易量
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Pernambuco Senate race for the two seats remains highly competitive with roughly one month until the October 4 vote, as recent Quaest polling shows Marília Arraes (PDT) at 17%, incumbent Humberto Costa (PT) at 14%, Mendonça Filho (PL) at 11%, and Eduardo da Fonte (PP) at 7% in consolidated first-and-second preferences—within the three-point margin of error. High undecided (27%) and blank/null (18%) shares, combined with voter sensitivity to the parallel gubernatorial contest between Raquel Lyra (PSD) and João Campos (PSB), sustain volatility and limit separation among the top contenders. Traders price Costa and Mendonça Filho as the closest for second place, reflecting their established bases, coalition alignments, and limited recent polling movement, while Arraes appears more anchored toward first. Late campaign shifts on security policy or turnout among left-leaning and right-leaning blocs could still reorder the finish.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市场开放时间： Aug 17, 2026, 6:12 AM ET
交易量
$30,979结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 6:12 AM ETThe Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Pernambuco Senate race for the two seats remains highly competitive with roughly one month until the October 4 vote, as recent Quaest polling shows Marília Arraes (PDT) at 17%, incumbent Humberto Costa (PT) at 14%, Mendonça Filho (PL) at 11%, and Eduardo da Fonte (PP) at 7% in consolidated first-and-second preferences—within the three-point margin of error. High undecided (27%) and blank/null (18%) shares, combined with voter sensitivity to the parallel gubernatorial contest between Raquel Lyra (PSD) and João Campos (PSB), sustain volatility and limit separation among the top contenders. Traders price Costa and Mendonça Filho as the closest for second place, reflecting their established bases, coalition alignments, and limited recent polling movement, while Arraes appears more anchored toward first. Late campaign shifts on security policy or turnout among left-leaning and right-leaning blocs could still reorder the finish.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$30,979结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 6:12 AM ETThe Pernambuco Senate race for the two seats remains highly competitive with roughly one month until the October 4 vote, as recent Quaest polling shows Marília Arraes (PDT) at 17%, incumbent Humberto Costa (PT) at 14%, Mendonça Filho (PL) at 11%, and Eduardo da Fonte (PP) at 7% in consolidated first-and-second preferences—within the three-point margin of error. High undecided (27%) and blank/null (18%) shares, combined with voter sensitivity to the parallel gubernatorial contest between Raquel Lyra (PSD) and João Campos (PSB), sustain volatility and limit separation among the top contenders. Traders price Costa and Mendonça Filho as the closest for second place, reflecting their established bases, coalition alignments, and limited recent polling movement, while Arraes appears more anchored toward first. Late campaign shifts on security policy or turnout among left-leaning and right-leaning blocs could still reorder the finish.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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