Recent polling from early September shows Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) leading overall Senate intentions in the Federal District at around 26%, positioning her as the likely first-place finisher ahead of the October 4 election. This leaves second place in a tight contest among incumbent Leila do Vôlei (PDT) at 17%, Bia Kicis (PL) at 11-17%, and Erika Kokay (PT) at 13-15%, with results often within the margin of error and technically tied. The PL's dual-candidacy slate and cross-party alliances tied to broader national races contribute to vote-splitting dynamics on the right, while left-leaning support clusters around Leila and Erika. With roughly two-thirds of voters undecided or open to shifts in the final weeks, trader consensus assigns Leila the highest probability for second place, though any late polling movement or turnout differences among key blocs could alter the ranking.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于莱拉·多·沃雷 52%
比娅·基西斯 28.1%
埃丽卡·科卡伊 16%
米歇尔·博尔索纳罗 1.0%
$40,092 交易量
$40,092 交易量
2026-10-04
莱拉·多·沃雷
57%
比娅·基西斯
28%
埃丽卡·科卡伊
16%
米歇尔·博尔索纳罗
7%
大卫·霍恩
<1%
Avenir Rosa
<1%
Guto Felício dos Santos
<1%
吉列尔梅·阿莫林教授
<1%
蒂亚戈
<1%
Marley
<1%
罗纳尔多·丰塞卡
<1%
塞巴斯蒂昂·科埃略
<1%
赞纳塔
<1%
莱拉·多·沃雷 52%
比娅·基西斯 28.1%
埃丽卡·科卡伊 16%
米歇尔·博尔索纳罗 1.0%
$40,092 交易量
$40,092 交易量
2026-10-04
莱拉·多·沃雷
$14,211 交易量
57%
比娅·基西斯
$9,633 交易量
28%
埃丽卡·科卡伊
$6,105 交易量
16%
米歇尔·博尔索纳罗
$4,262 交易量
7%
大卫·霍恩
$2,042 交易量
<1%
Avenir Rosa
$437 交易量
<1%
Guto Felício dos Santos
$381 交易量
<1%
吉列尔梅·阿莫林教授
$878 交易量
<1%
蒂亚戈
$546 交易量
<1%
Marley
$392 交易量
<1%
罗纳尔多·丰塞卡
$407 交易量
<1%
塞巴斯蒂昂·科埃略
$381 交易量
<1%
赞纳塔
$417 交易量
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from early September shows Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) leading overall Senate intentions in the Federal District at around 26%, positioning her as the likely first-place finisher ahead of the October 4 election. This leaves second place in a tight contest among incumbent Leila do Vôlei (PDT) at 17%, Bia Kicis (PL) at 11-17%, and Erika Kokay (PT) at 13-15%, with results often within the margin of error and technically tied. The PL's dual-candidacy slate and cross-party alliances tied to broader national races contribute to vote-splitting dynamics on the right, while left-leaning support clusters around Leila and Erika. With roughly two-thirds of voters undecided or open to shifts in the final weeks, trader consensus assigns Leila the highest probability for second place, though any late polling movement or turnout differences among key blocs could alter the ranking.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市场开放时间： Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ET
交易量
$40,092结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETThe Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from early September shows Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) leading overall Senate intentions in the Federal District at around 26%, positioning her as the likely first-place finisher ahead of the October 4 election. This leaves second place in a tight contest among incumbent Leila do Vôlei (PDT) at 17%, Bia Kicis (PL) at 11-17%, and Erika Kokay (PT) at 13-15%, with results often within the margin of error and technically tied. The PL's dual-candidacy slate and cross-party alliances tied to broader national races contribute to vote-splitting dynamics on the right, while left-leaning support clusters around Leila and Erika. With roughly two-thirds of voters undecided or open to shifts in the final weeks, trader consensus assigns Leila the highest probability for second place, though any late polling movement or turnout differences among key blocs could alter the ranking.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$40,092结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETRecent polling from early September shows Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) leading overall Senate intentions in the Federal District at around 26%, positioning her as the likely first-place finisher ahead of the October 4 election. This leaves second place in a tight contest among incumbent Leila do Vôlei (PDT) at 17%, Bia Kicis (PL) at 11-17%, and Erika Kokay (PT) at 13-15%, with results often within the margin of error and technically tied. The PL's dual-candidacy slate and cross-party alliances tied to broader national races contribute to vote-splitting dynamics on the right, while left-leaning support clusters around Leila and Erika. With roughly two-thirds of voters undecided or open to shifts in the final weeks, trader consensus assigns Leila the highest probability for second place, though any late polling movement or turnout differences among key blocs could alter the ranking.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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