Recent incidents on September 3, 8, and 9 have already produced multiple degraded-performance events for ChatGPT conversations, file uploads, image generation, and Codex, pushing traders to price in continued infrastructure strain from OpenAI’s expanding large language model workloads. These partial outages, often resolved within hours through mitigations rather than full resolutions, reflect typical scaling challenges as user demand and new features like GPT-6 Astra increase load on shared systems. With roughly 20 days left in September and a historical pattern of frequent minor incidents alongside occasional multi-hour disruptions, the closely bunched odds around 2–5+ outage days highlight uncertainty over whether the recent cluster signals sustained reliability pressure or isolated spikes. Traders are watching status.openai.com for any escalation tied to upcoming model updates or peak usage periods.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于3 25%
5+ 23%
2 21%
4 21%
最新
最新
2026-09-30
<1
2%
1
13%
2
21%
3
25%
4
21%
5+
23%
3 25%
5+ 23%
2 21%
4 21%
最新
最新
2026-09-30
<1
$311 交易量
2%
1
$1,484 交易量
13%
2
$614 交易量
21%
3
$522 交易量
25%
4
$603 交易量
21%
5+
$726 交易量
23%
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days during the specified month (ET) on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage'.
ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on a given day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance").
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page.
This market will remain open until all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve once all relevant days are finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent incidents on September 3, 8, and 9 have already produced multiple degraded-performance events for ChatGPT conversations, file uploads, image generation, and Codex, pushing traders to price in continued infrastructure strain from OpenAI’s expanding large language model workloads. These partial outages, often resolved within hours through mitigations rather than full resolutions, reflect typical scaling challenges as user demand and new features like GPT-6 Astra increase load on shared systems. With roughly 20 days left in September and a historical pattern of frequent minor incidents alongside occasional multi-hour disruptions, the closely bunched odds around 2–5+ outage days highlight uncertainty over whether the recent cluster signals sustained reliability pressure or isolated spikes. Traders are watching status.openai.com for any escalation tied to upcoming model updates or peak usage periods.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days during the specified month (ET) on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage'.
ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on a given day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance").
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page.
This market will remain open until all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve once all relevant days are finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on a given day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance").
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page.
This market will remain open until all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve once all relevant days are finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Aug 26, 2026, 6:11 PM ET
交易量
$4,261结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Aug 26, 2026, 6:11 PM ETThis market will resolve to the number of calendar days during the specified month (ET) on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage'.
ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on a given day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance").
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page.
This market will remain open until all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve once all relevant days are finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent incidents on September 3, 8, and 9 have already produced multiple degraded-performance events for ChatGPT conversations, file uploads, image generation, and Codex, pushing traders to price in continued infrastructure strain from OpenAI’s expanding large language model workloads. These partial outages, often resolved within hours through mitigations rather than full resolutions, reflect typical scaling challenges as user demand and new features like GPT-6 Astra increase load on shared systems. With roughly 20 days left in September and a historical pattern of frequent minor incidents alongside occasional multi-hour disruptions, the closely bunched odds around 2–5+ outage days highlight uncertainty over whether the recent cluster signals sustained reliability pressure or isolated spikes. Traders are watching status.openai.com for any escalation tied to upcoming model updates or peak usage periods.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days during the specified month (ET) on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage'.
ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on a given day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance").
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page.
This market will remain open until all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve once all relevant days are finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on a given day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance").
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page.
This market will remain open until all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve once all relevant days are finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$4,261结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Aug 26, 2026, 6:11 PM ETRecent incidents on September 3, 8, and 9 have already produced multiple degraded-performance events for ChatGPT conversations, file uploads, image generation, and Codex, pushing traders to price in continued infrastructure strain from OpenAI’s expanding large language model workloads. These partial outages, often resolved within hours through mitigations rather than full resolutions, reflect typical scaling challenges as user demand and new features like GPT-6 Astra increase load on shared systems. With roughly 20 days left in September and a historical pattern of frequent minor incidents alongside occasional multi-hour disruptions, the closely bunched odds around 2–5+ outage days highlight uncertainty over whether the recent cluster signals sustained reliability pressure or isolated spikes. Traders are watching status.openai.com for any escalation tied to upcoming model updates or peak usage periods.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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