The 5-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.61% as of September 9, 2026, has climbed from early-month levels around 4.52% amid hawkish Federal Reserve communications and persistent inflation pressures. Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks and subsequent signals have lifted market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting to roughly 60%, while August PCE inflation near 3.6% and elevated energy prices tied to Middle East supply risks have reinforced expectations for steady or tighter policy. The upcoming September 10–11 CPI and PPI releases, alongside the FOMC decision, represent key near-term catalysts that could shift rate-path expectations and Treasury pricing. Stronger-than-feared data would likely cap further yield declines, while cooler readings could ease upward pressure on the curve.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
2026-09-30
低于4.52%
44%
低于4.49%
45%
低于4.46%
46%
低于4.43%
41%
低于4.40%
43%
低于4.37%
33%
低于4.32%
24%
低于4.27%
19%
低于4.20%
14%
$1,939 交易量
低于4.52%
$1,150 交易量
44%
低于4.49%
$553 交易量
45%
低于4.46%
$61 交易量
46%
低于4.43%
$70 交易量
41%
低于4.40%
$0 交易量
43%
低于4.37%
$0 交易量
33%
低于4.32%
$0 交易量
24%
低于4.27%
$0 交易量
19%
低于4.20%
$106 交易量
14%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 5-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.61% as of September 9, 2026, has climbed from early-month levels around 4.52% amid hawkish Federal Reserve communications and persistent inflation pressures. Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks and subsequent signals have lifted market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting to roughly 60%, while August PCE inflation near 3.6% and elevated energy prices tied to Middle East supply risks have reinforced expectations for steady or tighter policy. The upcoming September 10–11 CPI and PPI releases, alongside the FOMC decision, represent key near-term catalysts that could shift rate-path expectations and Treasury pricing. Stronger-than-feared data would likely cap further yield declines, while cooler readings could ease upward pressure on the curve.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
市场开放时间： Sep 2, 2026, 8:45 PM ET
交易量
$1,939结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 8:45 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 5-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.61% as of September 9, 2026, has climbed from early-month levels around 4.52% amid hawkish Federal Reserve communications and persistent inflation pressures. Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks and subsequent signals have lifted market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting to roughly 60%, while August PCE inflation near 3.6% and elevated energy prices tied to Middle East supply risks have reinforced expectations for steady or tighter policy. The upcoming September 10–11 CPI and PPI releases, alongside the FOMC decision, represent key near-term catalysts that could shift rate-path expectations and Treasury pricing. Stronger-than-feared data would likely cap further yield declines, while cooler readings could ease upward pressure on the curve.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
交易量
$1,939结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 8:45 PM ETThe 5-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.61% as of September 9, 2026, has climbed from early-month levels around 4.52% amid hawkish Federal Reserve communications and persistent inflation pressures. Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks and subsequent signals have lifted market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting to roughly 60%, while August PCE inflation near 3.6% and elevated energy prices tied to Middle East supply risks have reinforced expectations for steady or tighter policy. The upcoming September 10–11 CPI and PPI releases, alongside the FOMC decision, represent key near-term catalysts that could shift rate-path expectations and Treasury pricing. Stronger-than-feared data would likely cap further yield declines, while cooler readings could ease upward pressure on the curve.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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