Recent forecasts from the Federal Reserve, IMF, and private economists cluster around 2.0–2.2% real GDP growth for 2026 on a Q4/Q4 or annual-average basis, reflecting solid but moderating expansion. Second-quarter growth printed at a 1.5% annualized rate, yet upward revisions to consumer spending and robust nonresidential fixed investment—particularly AI-driven capital expenditures—have bolstered underlying momentum and labor productivity. Elevated inflation, with headline PCE near 3.2–3.7%, and the prospect of steady or higher federal funds rates around 3.5–3.75% introduce downside risks to demand-sensitive sectors. The narrow split between the 2.0–2.5% and 1.5–2.0% brackets on Polymarket captures uncertainty over whether productivity gains can fully offset labor-market softening and policy restraint ahead of the September FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation releases.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2.0–2.5% 45%
1.5–2.0% 36.8%
>2.5% 7.7%
低于0.5% 3.3%
$60,615 交易量
$60,615 交易量
2027-01-28
低于0.5%
3%
0.5–1.0%
1%
1.0–1.5%
3%
1.5–2.0%
37%
2.0–2.5%
45%
>2.5%
8%
2.0–2.5% 45%
1.5–2.0% 36.8%
>2.5% 7.7%
低于0.5% 3.3%
$60,615 交易量
$60,615 交易量
2027-01-28
低于0.5%
$7,659 交易量
3%
0.5–1.0%
$17,367 交易量
1%
1.0–1.5%
$3,951 交易量
3%
1.5–2.0%
$7,588 交易量
37%
2.0–2.5%
$7,922 交易量
45%
>2.5%
$16,129 交易量
8%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from the Federal Reserve, IMF, and private economists cluster around 2.0–2.2% real GDP growth for 2026 on a Q4/Q4 or annual-average basis, reflecting solid but moderating expansion. Second-quarter growth printed at a 1.5% annualized rate, yet upward revisions to consumer spending and robust nonresidential fixed investment—particularly AI-driven capital expenditures—have bolstered underlying momentum and labor productivity. Elevated inflation, with headline PCE near 3.2–3.7%, and the prospect of steady or higher federal funds rates around 3.5–3.75% introduce downside risks to demand-sensitive sectors. The narrow split between the 2.0–2.5% and 1.5–2.0% brackets on Polymarket captures uncertainty over whether productivity gains can fully offset labor-market softening and policy restraint ahead of the September FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation releases.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
交易量
$60,615结束日期
2027-01-29市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from the Federal Reserve, IMF, and private economists cluster around 2.0–2.2% real GDP growth for 2026 on a Q4/Q4 or annual-average basis, reflecting solid but moderating expansion. Second-quarter growth printed at a 1.5% annualized rate, yet upward revisions to consumer spending and robust nonresidential fixed investment—particularly AI-driven capital expenditures—have bolstered underlying momentum and labor productivity. Elevated inflation, with headline PCE near 3.2–3.7%, and the prospect of steady or higher federal funds rates around 3.5–3.75% introduce downside risks to demand-sensitive sectors. The narrow split between the 2.0–2.5% and 1.5–2.0% brackets on Polymarket captures uncertainty over whether productivity gains can fully offset labor-market softening and policy restraint ahead of the September FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation releases.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$60,615结束日期
2027-01-29市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETRecent forecasts from the Federal Reserve, IMF, and private economists cluster around 2.0–2.2% real GDP growth for 2026 on a Q4/Q4 or annual-average basis, reflecting solid but moderating expansion. Second-quarter growth printed at a 1.5% annualized rate, yet upward revisions to consumer spending and robust nonresidential fixed investment—particularly AI-driven capital expenditures—have bolstered underlying momentum and labor productivity. Elevated inflation, with headline PCE near 3.2–3.7%, and the prospect of steady or higher federal funds rates around 3.5–3.75% introduce downside risks to demand-sensitive sectors. The narrow split between the 2.0–2.5% and 1.5–2.0% brackets on Polymarket captures uncertainty over whether productivity gains can fully offset labor-market softening and policy restraint ahead of the September FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation releases.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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