The ECB Governing Council’s September 10 decision to raise the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% reflects persistent energy-driven inflation pressures stemming from the Middle East conflict, with August headline inflation reaching 3.3% and staff projections showing 3.0% average inflation for 2026. Euro-area economic resilience, evidenced by upward revisions to growth forecasts, supported the move amid risks of second-round effects. Futures markets had priced a 99% probability of this exact outcome ahead of the meeting, aligning with unanimous economist surveys and the bank’s meeting-by-meeting approach. While the September adjustment is now confirmed, any subsequent path depends on evolving inflation data, geopolitical developments, and updated projections that could still influence later decisions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于加息25个基点 100.0%
降息50个基点以上 <1%
降息25个基点 <1%
维持不变 <1%
$601,991 交易量
$601,991 交易量
2026-09-10
降息50个基点以上
否
降息25个基点
否
维持不变
否
加息25个基点
是
加息50个基点或以上
否
加息25个基点 100.0%
降息50个基点以上 <1%
降息25个基点 <1%
维持不变 <1%
$601,991 交易量
$601,991 交易量
2026-09-10
降息50个基点以上
$15,931 交易量
否
降息25个基点
$42,419 交易量
否
维持不变
$246,074 交易量
否
加息25个基点
$193,824 交易量
是
加息50个基点或以上
$103,742 交易量
否
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.The ECB Governing Council’s September 10 decision to raise the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% reflects persistent energy-driven inflation pressures stemming from the Middle East conflict, with August headline inflation reaching 3.3% and staff projections showing 3.0% average inflation for 2026. Euro-area economic resilience, evidenced by upward revisions to growth forecasts, supported the move amid risks of second-round effects. Futures markets had priced a 99% probability of this exact outcome ahead of the meeting, aligning with unanimous economist surveys and the bank’s meeting-by-meeting approach. While the September adjustment is now confirmed, any subsequent path depends on evolving inflation data, geopolitical developments, and updated projections that could still influence later decisions.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jun 17, 2026, 6:51 PM ET
交易量
$601,991结束日期
2026-09-10市场开放时间
Jun 17, 2026, 6:51 PM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.The ECB Governing Council’s September 10 decision to raise the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% reflects persistent energy-driven inflation pressures stemming from the Middle East conflict, with August headline inflation reaching 3.3% and staff projections showing 3.0% average inflation for 2026. Euro-area economic resilience, evidenced by upward revisions to growth forecasts, supported the move amid risks of second-round effects. Futures markets had priced a 99% probability of this exact outcome ahead of the meeting, aligning with unanimous economist surveys and the bank’s meeting-by-meeting approach. While the September adjustment is now confirmed, any subsequent path depends on evolving inflation data, geopolitical developments, and updated projections that could still influence later decisions.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
交易量
$601,991结束日期
2026-09-10市场开放时间
Jun 17, 2026, 6:51 PM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
The ECB Governing Council’s September 10 decision to raise the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% reflects persistent energy-driven inflation pressures stemming from the Middle East conflict, with August headline inflation reaching 3.3% and staff projections showing 3.0% average inflation for 2026. Euro-area economic resilience, evidenced by upward revisions to growth forecasts, supported the move amid risks of second-round effects. Futures markets had priced a 99% probability of this exact outcome ahead of the meeting, aligning with unanimous economist surveys and the bank’s meeting-by-meeting approach. While the September adjustment is now confirmed, any subsequent path depends on evolving inflation data, geopolitical developments, and updated projections that could still influence later decisions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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