Strong consensus among major forecasters, including IMF projections of 2.4% U.S. GDP growth for 2026 and Federal Reserve estimates near 2.2%, underpins the 98% market-implied probability against negative annual growth. Recent quarterly data reinforce this view, with positive real GDP expansion of 2.1% annualized in Q1 and 1.5% in Q2 amid resilient consumer spending, AI-driven business investment, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1%. These factors align with growth near potential, supported by current monetary policy settings and Treasury yields. Tail risks remain from potential escalation in energy prices due to geopolitical tensions or sharper inflation persistence that could prompt additional Fed tightening and tip the economy into contraction.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
2% 概率
$33,280 交易量
$33,280 交易量
2027-01-28
是
2% 概率
$33,280 交易量
$33,280 交易量
2027-01-28
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong consensus among major forecasters, including IMF projections of 2.4% U.S. GDP growth for 2026 and Federal Reserve estimates near 2.2%, underpins the 98% market-implied probability against negative annual growth. Recent quarterly data reinforce this view, with positive real GDP expansion of 2.1% annualized in Q1 and 1.5% in Q2 amid resilient consumer spending, AI-driven business investment, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1%. These factors align with growth near potential, supported by current monetary policy settings and Treasury yields. Tail risks remain from potential escalation in energy prices due to geopolitical tensions or sharper inflation persistence that could prompt additional Fed tightening and tip the economy into contraction.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
交易量
$33,280结束日期
2027-01-29市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETThis market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong consensus among major forecasters, including IMF projections of 2.4% U.S. GDP growth for 2026 and Federal Reserve estimates near 2.2%, underpins the 98% market-implied probability against negative annual growth. Recent quarterly data reinforce this view, with positive real GDP expansion of 2.1% annualized in Q1 and 1.5% in Q2 amid resilient consumer spending, AI-driven business investment, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1%. These factors align with growth near potential, supported by current monetary policy settings and Treasury yields. Tail risks remain from potential escalation in energy prices due to geopolitical tensions or sharper inflation persistence that could prompt additional Fed tightening and tip the economy into contraction.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
交易量
$33,280结束日期
2027-01-29市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETStrong consensus among major forecasters, including IMF projections of 2.4% U.S. GDP growth for 2026 and Federal Reserve estimates near 2.2%, underpins the 98% market-implied probability against negative annual growth. Recent quarterly data reinforce this view, with positive real GDP expansion of 2.1% annualized in Q1 and 1.5% in Q2 amid resilient consumer spending, AI-driven business investment, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1%. These factors align with growth near potential, supported by current monetary policy settings and Treasury yields. Tail risks remain from potential escalation in energy prices due to geopolitical tensions or sharper inflation persistence that could prompt additional Fed tightening and tip the economy into contraction.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题