Traders see a 97.7% implied probability of “No” because Elon Musk has offered only a brief verbal endorsement of Dario Amodei’s September 12 essay on pacing frontier AI capabilities, without adding his name or xAI’s to the July 2026 employee statement at pacingthefrontier.com. That letter, signed by over 1,200 staff from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, and Meta, calls for U.S.-backed international tools to slow automated AI research. Musk’s pattern of avoiding formal commitments on such coordinated pauses, the nine-day window remaining until September 30, and absence of any reported negotiations or xAI policy shift reinforce the market’s near-certainty. A last-minute personal signature or corporate endorsement remains possible if new safety incidents or regulatory pressure emerge, but no credible signals point in that direction.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
2% 概率
$10,730 交易量
$10,730 交易量
2026-09-30
是
2% 概率
$10,730 交易量
$10,730 交易量
2026-09-30
In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying listing must identify Elon Musk by name together with his role at SpaceXAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of SpaceXAI. Once Elon Musk is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Elon Musk or SpaceXAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders see a 97.7% implied probability of “No” because Elon Musk has offered only a brief verbal endorsement of Dario Amodei’s September 12 essay on pacing frontier AI capabilities, without adding his name or xAI’s to the July 2026 employee statement at pacingthefrontier.com. That letter, signed by over 1,200 staff from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, and Meta, calls for U.S.-backed international tools to slow automated AI research. Musk’s pattern of avoiding formal commitments on such coordinated pauses, the nine-day window remaining until September 30, and absence of any reported negotiations or xAI policy shift reinforce the market’s near-certainty. A last-minute personal signature or corporate endorsement remains possible if new safety incidents or regulatory pressure emerge, but no credible signals point in that direction.
In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying listing must identify Elon Musk by name together with his role at SpaceXAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of SpaceXAI. Once Elon Musk is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Elon Musk or SpaceXAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying listing must identify Elon Musk by name together with his role at SpaceXAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of SpaceXAI. Once Elon Musk is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Elon Musk or SpaceXAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Sep 14, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
交易量
$10,730结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Sep 14, 2026, 6:46 PM ETIn July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying listing must identify Elon Musk by name together with his role at SpaceXAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of SpaceXAI. Once Elon Musk is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Elon Musk or SpaceXAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders see a 97.7% implied probability of “No” because Elon Musk has offered only a brief verbal endorsement of Dario Amodei’s September 12 essay on pacing frontier AI capabilities, without adding his name or xAI’s to the July 2026 employee statement at pacingthefrontier.com. That letter, signed by over 1,200 staff from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, and Meta, calls for U.S.-backed international tools to slow automated AI research. Musk’s pattern of avoiding formal commitments on such coordinated pauses, the nine-day window remaining until September 30, and absence of any reported negotiations or xAI policy shift reinforce the market’s near-certainty. A last-minute personal signature or corporate endorsement remains possible if new safety incidents or regulatory pressure emerge, but no credible signals point in that direction.
In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying listing must identify Elon Musk by name together with his role at SpaceXAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of SpaceXAI. Once Elon Musk is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Elon Musk or SpaceXAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying listing must identify Elon Musk by name together with his role at SpaceXAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of SpaceXAI. Once Elon Musk is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Elon Musk or SpaceXAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$10,730结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Sep 14, 2026, 6:46 PM ETTraders see a 97.7% implied probability of “No” because Elon Musk has offered only a brief verbal endorsement of Dario Amodei’s September 12 essay on pacing frontier AI capabilities, without adding his name or xAI’s to the July 2026 employee statement at pacingthefrontier.com. That letter, signed by over 1,200 staff from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, and Meta, calls for U.S.-backed international tools to slow automated AI research. Musk’s pattern of avoiding formal commitments on such coordinated pauses, the nine-day window remaining until September 30, and absence of any reported negotiations or xAI policy shift reinforce the market’s near-certainty. A last-minute personal signature or corporate endorsement remains possible if new safety incidents or regulatory pressure emerge, but no credible signals point in that direction.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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