Recent polling for the September 20 Berlin state election shows the SPD consistently projected between 11% and 15%, with the most recent Infratest dimap survey placing it at 11% and earlier Forsa and INSA figures at 12-15%. This range underpins trader consensus on a 10-13% outcome, as the party trails the CDU, Linke, AfD, and Greens in a fragmented field. The SPD's position reflects its role as junior partner in the outgoing CDU-led coalition, limited momentum for lead candidate Steffen Krach, and broader national pressures on the party ahead of concurrent state votes. Shifts in late surveys have kept higher shares (13%+) as secondary possibilities while rendering double-digit upside unlikely.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于10-13% 52%
13-16% 27%
低于10% 18.9%
16%+ 5%
$20,826 交易量
$20,826 交易量
2026-09-20
低于10%
19%
10-13%
52%
13-16%
27%
16%+
5%
10-13% 52%
13-16% 27%
低于10% 18.9%
16%+ 5%
$20,826 交易量
$20,826 交易量
2026-09-20
低于10%
$5,408 交易量
19%
10-13%
$5,121 交易量
52%
13-16%
$7,207 交易量
27%
16%+
$3,089 交易量
5%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling for the September 20 Berlin state election shows the SPD consistently projected between 11% and 15%, with the most recent Infratest dimap survey placing it at 11% and earlier Forsa and INSA figures at 12-15%. This range underpins trader consensus on a 10-13% outcome, as the party trails the CDU, Linke, AfD, and Greens in a fragmented field. The SPD's position reflects its role as junior partner in the outgoing CDU-led coalition, limited momentum for lead candidate Steffen Krach, and broader national pressures on the party ahead of concurrent state votes. Shifts in late surveys have kept higher shares (13%+) as secondary possibilities while rendering double-digit upside unlikely.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
市场开放时间： Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ET
交易量
$20,826结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ETParliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling for the September 20 Berlin state election shows the SPD consistently projected between 11% and 15%, with the most recent Infratest dimap survey placing it at 11% and earlier Forsa and INSA figures at 12-15%. This range underpins trader consensus on a 10-13% outcome, as the party trails the CDU, Linke, AfD, and Greens in a fragmented field. The SPD's position reflects its role as junior partner in the outgoing CDU-led coalition, limited momentum for lead candidate Steffen Krach, and broader national pressures on the party ahead of concurrent state votes. Shifts in late surveys have kept higher shares (13%+) as secondary possibilities while rendering double-digit upside unlikely.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
交易量
$20,826结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ETRecent polling for the September 20 Berlin state election shows the SPD consistently projected between 11% and 15%, with the most recent Infratest dimap survey placing it at 11% and earlier Forsa and INSA figures at 12-15%. This range underpins trader consensus on a 10-13% outcome, as the party trails the CDU, Linke, AfD, and Greens in a fragmented field. The SPD's position reflects its role as junior partner in the outgoing CDU-led coalition, limited momentum for lead candidate Steffen Krach, and broader national pressures on the party ahead of concurrent state votes. Shifts in late surveys have kept higher shares (13%+) as secondary possibilities while rendering double-digit upside unlikely.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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