In the Vanier-Les Rivières riding for Quebec's October 5, 2026, National Assembly election, trader prices reflect a tight contest between Coalition avenir Québec candidate Françoise Faverjon-Fortin and Parti conservateur du Québec nominee Patrick Paquet, with projections placing them within a few points of each other in the mid-to-high 20s. The departure of incumbent Mario Asselin has opened the seat to competition amid broader Capitale-Nationale shifts favoring PCQ gains alongside residual CAQ support. PQ candidate Stéphanie Martin trails but remains relevant in local polling, while Liberal and other contenders register minimal shares. Recent nomination deadlines and early campaigning on fiscal priorities, housing, and healthcare access have kept the race competitive without decisive separation, consistent with the narrow implied probabilities across leading options.