Rui Costa (PT) holds an 80% implied probability of finishing first in Bahia's Senate election due to consistent leads in recent voter intention surveys. A Real Time Big Data poll conducted September 4–8, 2026, among 1,600 respondents showed him at 26% in consolidated first- and second-choice votes, well ahead of Jaques Wagner (PT) at 19%, João Roma (PL) at 17%, and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) at 15%, with the latter three statistically tied for the second seat within the 2-point margin of error. Costa's stronger performance on first-choice ballots (39%) reflects his visibility as former Casa Civil minister and alignment with the state's governing PT coalition. The election for the two seats occurs October 4, 2026, with traders pricing limited near-term shifts absent major new polling or campaign events.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于鲁伊·科斯塔 80%
Jaques Wagner 11.3%
若昂·罗马 3.2%
Angelo Coronel 2.8%
$28,682 交易量
$28,682 交易量
2026-10-04
鲁伊·科斯塔
80%
Jaques Wagner
11%
若昂·罗马
3%
Angelo Coronel
3%
教授德利安娜
<1%
Carlos Sodré
<1%
Gregorio Gould
<1%
马塞洛·卡瓦略
<1%
马塞洛·米莱特
<1%
Marcelo Santtana
<1%
鲁伊·科斯塔 80%
Jaques Wagner 11.3%
若昂·罗马 3.2%
Angelo Coronel 2.8%
$28,682 交易量
$28,682 交易量
2026-10-04
鲁伊·科斯塔
$13,553 交易量
80%
Jaques Wagner
$6,008 交易量
11%
若昂·罗马
$2,802 交易量
3%
Angelo Coronel
$1,835 交易量
3%
教授德利安娜
$667 交易量
<1%
Carlos Sodré
$800 交易量
<1%
Gregorio Gould
$691 交易量
<1%
马塞洛·卡瓦略
$741 交易量
<1%
马塞洛·米莱特
$810 交易量
<1%
Marcelo Santtana
$775 交易量
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Rui Costa (PT) holds an 80% implied probability of finishing first in Bahia's Senate election due to consistent leads in recent voter intention surveys. A Real Time Big Data poll conducted September 4–8, 2026, among 1,600 respondents showed him at 26% in consolidated first- and second-choice votes, well ahead of Jaques Wagner (PT) at 19%, João Roma (PL) at 17%, and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) at 15%, with the latter three statistically tied for the second seat within the 2-point margin of error. Costa's stronger performance on first-choice ballots (39%) reflects his visibility as former Casa Civil minister and alignment with the state's governing PT coalition. The election for the two seats occurs October 4, 2026, with traders pricing limited near-term shifts absent major new polling or campaign events.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市场开放时间： Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ET
交易量
$28,682结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETThe Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Rui Costa (PT) holds an 80% implied probability of finishing first in Bahia's Senate election due to consistent leads in recent voter intention surveys. A Real Time Big Data poll conducted September 4–8, 2026, among 1,600 respondents showed him at 26% in consolidated first- and second-choice votes, well ahead of Jaques Wagner (PT) at 19%, João Roma (PL) at 17%, and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) at 15%, with the latter three statistically tied for the second seat within the 2-point margin of error. Costa's stronger performance on first-choice ballots (39%) reflects his visibility as former Casa Civil minister and alignment with the state's governing PT coalition. The election for the two seats occurs October 4, 2026, with traders pricing limited near-term shifts absent major new polling or campaign events.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$28,682结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETRui Costa (PT) holds an 80% implied probability of finishing first in Bahia's Senate election due to consistent leads in recent voter intention surveys. A Real Time Big Data poll conducted September 4–8, 2026, among 1,600 respondents showed him at 26% in consolidated first- and second-choice votes, well ahead of Jaques Wagner (PT) at 19%, João Roma (PL) at 17%, and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) at 15%, with the latter three statistically tied for the second seat within the 2-point margin of error. Costa's stronger performance on first-choice ballots (39%) reflects his visibility as former Casa Civil minister and alignment with the state's governing PT coalition. The election for the two seats occurs October 4, 2026, with traders pricing limited near-term shifts absent major new polling or campaign events.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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