Anthropic holds an 85.5% market-implied probability of leading LiveBench Coding at end of October, driven by its Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 models posting top scores across multiple coding evaluations including SWE-bench Verified and related agentic tasks in recent months. These releases, with strong performance on contamination-resistant benchmarks, have reinforced trader consensus around Anthropic's edge in software engineering capabilities over OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and GPT variants, which sit at just 12.6%. OpenAI's September model update and ongoing competition from Chinese labs like DeepSeek add uncertainty, but no verified LiveBench Coding shifts have displaced Anthropic's positioning yet. Key catalysts through October include any new model drops or benchmark refreshes that could alter the leaderboard.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Anthropic 86%
OpenAI 12.5%
Google <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$22,608 交易量
$22,608 交易量
2026-10-31
Anthropic
86%
OpenAI
13%
1%
DeepSeek
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
MiniMax
<1%
Meta
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
百度
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
小米
<1%
亞馬遜
<1%
字節跳動
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Mistral
<1%
美團
<1%
騰訊
<1%
StepFun
<1%
微軟
<1%
Anthropic 86%
OpenAI 12.5%
Google <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$22,608 交易量
$22,608 交易量
2026-10-31
Anthropic
$10,051 交易量
86%
OpenAI
$3,327 交易量
13%
$746 交易量
1%
DeepSeek
$703 交易量
1%
SpaceXAI
$1,102 交易量
1%
MiniMax
$489 交易量
<1%
Meta
$398 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$355 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$310 交易量
<1%
百度
$395 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$507 交易量
<1%
小米
$468 交易量
<1%
亞馬遜
$410 交易量
<1%
字節跳動
$363 交易量
<1%
Nvidia
$499 交易量
<1%
Thinky
$454 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$612 交易量
<1%
美團
$364 交易量
<1%
騰訊
$297 交易量
<1%
StepFun
$334 交易量
<1%
微軟
$426 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds an 85.5% market-implied probability of leading LiveBench Coding at end of October, driven by its Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 models posting top scores across multiple coding evaluations including SWE-bench Verified and related agentic tasks in recent months. These releases, with strong performance on contamination-resistant benchmarks, have reinforced trader consensus around Anthropic's edge in software engineering capabilities over OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and GPT variants, which sit at just 12.6%. OpenAI's September model update and ongoing competition from Chinese labs like DeepSeek add uncertainty, but no verified LiveBench Coding shifts have displaced Anthropic's positioning yet. Key catalysts through October include any new model drops or benchmark refreshes that could alter the leaderboard.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
市場開放時間： Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
交易量
$22,608結束日期
2026-11-01市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds an 85.5% market-implied probability of leading LiveBench Coding at end of October, driven by its Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 models posting top scores across multiple coding evaluations including SWE-bench Verified and related agentic tasks in recent months. These releases, with strong performance on contamination-resistant benchmarks, have reinforced trader consensus around Anthropic's edge in software engineering capabilities over OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and GPT variants, which sit at just 12.6%. OpenAI's September model update and ongoing competition from Chinese labs like DeepSeek add uncertainty, but no verified LiveBench Coding shifts have displaced Anthropic's positioning yet. Key catalysts through October include any new model drops or benchmark refreshes that could alter the leaderboard.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
交易量
$22,608結束日期
2026-11-01市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETAnthropic holds an 85.5% market-implied probability of leading LiveBench Coding at end of October, driven by its Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 models posting top scores across multiple coding evaluations including SWE-bench Verified and related agentic tasks in recent months. These releases, with strong performance on contamination-resistant benchmarks, have reinforced trader consensus around Anthropic's edge in software engineering capabilities over OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and GPT variants, which sit at just 12.6%. OpenAI's September model update and ongoing competition from Chinese labs like DeepSeek add uncertainty, but no verified LiveBench Coding shifts have displaced Anthropic's positioning yet. Key catalysts through October include any new model drops or benchmark refreshes that could alter the leaderboard.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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