**Meta leads trader sentiment for third-best AI lab by end of November at 36% implied probability, ahead of Google at 28.5% and OpenAI at 15.5%, reflecting a fragmented contest shaped by recent model releases and leaderboard positioning.** As of mid-September 2026, OpenAI’s GPT Image 2.5 variants top text-to-image arenas with strong prompt adherence and editing performance, while its GPT-6 Astra leads agentic and reasoning benchmarks. This positions OpenAI as the probable frontrunner, lowering its odds for the third slot. Meta’s Muse Image (released late August) and Muse Spark 1.3 (early September) deliver competitive agentic editing, multi-reference composition, and coding gains, boosting its lab ranking through broad platform integration and accessibility. Google’s Nano Banana/Gemini image models sit in the mid-pack, supported by frequent Gemini 3.x updates but trailing in overall arena momentum. The tight spread between Meta and Google highlights uncertainty over which lab can sustain gains in style-controlled image generation and overall capabilities through November, with Chinese labs and others offering lower-probability upside on open-weight or specialized releases. Traders weigh these verified September developments most heavily when assessing the November 30 resolution on arena.ai lab leaderboards.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Meta 36%
Google 29%
OpenAI 16%
騰訊 9.0%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
Meta
36%
29%
OpenAI
16%
騰訊
7%
小米
5%
阿里巴巴
5%
美團
3%
Anthropic
3%
Thinky
7%
Nvidia
3%
亞馬遜
3%
Z.ai
2%
Moonshot
8%
Mistral
2%
StepFun
2%
百度
2%
字節跳動
2%
SpaceXAI
1%
DeepSeek
1%
MiniMax
1%
微軟
<1%
Meta 36%
Google 29%
OpenAI 16%
騰訊 9.0%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
Meta
$1,401 交易量
36%
$635 交易量
29%
OpenAI
$1,216 交易量
16%
騰訊
$550 交易量
7%
小米
$218 交易量
5%
阿里巴巴
$178 交易量
5%
美團
$569 交易量
3%
Anthropic
$164 交易量
3%
Thinky
$306 交易量
7%
Nvidia
$150 交易量
3%
亞馬遜
$150 交易量
3%
Z.ai
$150 交易量
2%
Moonshot
$150 交易量
8%
Mistral
$141 交易量
2%
StepFun
$150 交易量
2%
百度
$150 交易量
2%
字節跳動
$150 交易量
2%
SpaceXAI
$162 交易量
1%
DeepSeek
$150 交易量
1%
MiniMax
$150 交易量
1%
微軟
$150 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**Meta leads trader sentiment for third-best AI lab by end of November at 36% implied probability, ahead of Google at 28.5% and OpenAI at 15.5%, reflecting a fragmented contest shaped by recent model releases and leaderboard positioning.**
As of mid-September 2026, OpenAI’s GPT Image 2.5 variants top text-to-image arenas with strong prompt adherence and editing performance, while its GPT-6 Astra leads agentic and reasoning benchmarks. This positions OpenAI as the probable frontrunner, lowering its odds for the third slot. Meta’s Muse Image (released late August) and Muse Spark 1.3 (early September) deliver competitive agentic editing, multi-reference composition, and coding gains, boosting its lab ranking through broad platform integration and accessibility. Google’s Nano Banana/Gemini image models sit in the mid-pack, supported by frequent Gemini 3.x updates but trailing in overall arena momentum.
The tight spread between Meta and Google highlights uncertainty over which lab can sustain gains in style-controlled image generation and overall capabilities through November, with Chinese labs and others offering lower-probability upside on open-weight or specialized releases. Traders weigh these verified September developments most heavily when assessing the November 30 resolution on arena.ai lab leaderboards.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市場開放時間： Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ET
交易量
$7,042結束日期
2026-12-01市場開放時間
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**Meta leads trader sentiment for third-best AI lab by end of November at 36% implied probability, ahead of Google at 28.5% and OpenAI at 15.5%, reflecting a fragmented contest shaped by recent model releases and leaderboard positioning.**
As of mid-September 2026, OpenAI’s GPT Image 2.5 variants top text-to-image arenas with strong prompt adherence and editing performance, while its GPT-6 Astra leads agentic and reasoning benchmarks. This positions OpenAI as the probable frontrunner, lowering its odds for the third slot. Meta’s Muse Image (released late August) and Muse Spark 1.3 (early September) deliver competitive agentic editing, multi-reference composition, and coding gains, boosting its lab ranking through broad platform integration and accessibility. Google’s Nano Banana/Gemini image models sit in the mid-pack, supported by frequent Gemini 3.x updates but trailing in overall arena momentum.
The tight spread between Meta and Google highlights uncertainty over which lab can sustain gains in style-controlled image generation and overall capabilities through November, with Chinese labs and others offering lower-probability upside on open-weight or specialized releases. Traders weigh these verified September developments most heavily when assessing the November 30 resolution on arena.ai lab leaderboards.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$7,042結束日期
2026-12-01市場開放時間
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ET**Meta leads trader sentiment for third-best AI lab by end of November at 36% implied probability, ahead of Google at 28.5% and OpenAI at 15.5%, reflecting a fragmented contest shaped by recent model releases and leaderboard positioning.** As of mid-September 2026, OpenAI’s GPT Image 2.5 variants top text-to-image arenas with strong prompt adherence and editing performance, while its GPT-6 Astra leads agentic and reasoning benchmarks. This positions OpenAI as the probable frontrunner, lowering its odds for the third slot. Meta’s Muse Image (released late August) and Muse Spark 1.3 (early September) deliver competitive agentic editing, multi-reference composition, and coding gains, boosting its lab ranking through broad platform integration and accessibility. Google’s Nano Banana/Gemini image models sit in the mid-pack, supported by frequent Gemini 3.x updates but trailing in overall arena momentum. The tight spread between Meta and Google highlights uncertainty over which lab can sustain gains in style-controlled image generation and overall capabilities through November, with Chinese labs and others offering lower-probability upside on open-weight or specialized releases. Traders weigh these verified September developments most heavily when assessing the November 30 resolution on arena.ai lab leaderboards.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions