Anthropic’s official launch of Claude Opus 5.5 on September 22 drives the near-certain market consensus, with the model now live across the Claude platform, AWS, Google Cloud, and Azure. The release delivers Fable 5.1-level performance on coding and knowledge work benchmarks at roughly 40% lower cost than Opus 5, alongside faster inference, clearer communication, and stronger safety scores from external evaluators like METR. This follows the July 24 debut of Opus 5 and aligns with Anthropic’s recent emphasis on measured frontier pacing. While the confirmed availability leaves little room for slippage, any last-minute rollout issues or delayed API access could theoretically shift resolution, though public benchmarks and announcements make such outcomes highly improbable.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月22日 100.0%
9 月 18 日 <1%
在2026年9月16日或之前 <1%
9 月 17 日 <1%
$494,797 交易量
$494,797 交易量
2026-09-16
在2026年9月16日或之前
否
9 月 17 日
否
9 月 18 日
否
9月19日
否
9 月 20 日
否
9月21日
否
9月22日
是
9月23日
否
9月24日
否
9月25日
否
9 月 26 日
否
9月27日
否
9 月 28 日
否
9月29日
否
9月30日
否
在2026年9月30日之前不發布
否
9月22日 100.0%
9 月 18 日 <1%
在2026年9月16日或之前 <1%
9 月 17 日 <1%
$494,797 交易量
$494,797 交易量
2026-09-16
在2026年9月16日或之前
$149 交易量
否
9 月 17 日
$620 交易量
否
9 月 18 日
$542 交易量
否
9月19日
$669 交易量
否
9 月 20 日
$1,172 交易量
否
9月21日
$169,566 交易量
否
9月22日
$181,525 交易量
是
9月23日
$30,839 交易量
否
9月24日
$32,906 交易量
否
9月25日
$14,238 交易量
否
9 月 26 日
$8,925 交易量
否
9月27日
$7,526 交易量
否
9 月 28 日
$6,322 交易量
否
9月29日
$8,466 交易量
否
9月30日
$8,343 交易量
否
在2026年9月30日之前不發布
$22,989 交易量
否
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s official launch of Claude Opus 5.5 on September 22 drives the near-certain market consensus, with the model now live across the Claude platform, AWS, Google Cloud, and Azure. The release delivers Fable 5.1-level performance on coding and knowledge work benchmarks at roughly 40% lower cost than Opus 5, alongside faster inference, clearer communication, and stronger safety scores from external evaluators like METR. This follows the July 24 debut of Opus 5 and aligns with Anthropic’s recent emphasis on measured frontier pacing. While the confirmed availability leaves little room for slippage, any last-minute rollout issues or delayed API access could theoretically shift resolution, though public benchmarks and announcements make such outcomes highly improbable.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ET
交易量
$494,797結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s official launch of Claude Opus 5.5 on September 22 drives the near-certain market consensus, with the model now live across the Claude platform, AWS, Google Cloud, and Azure. The release delivers Fable 5.1-level performance on coding and knowledge work benchmarks at roughly 40% lower cost than Opus 5, alongside faster inference, clearer communication, and stronger safety scores from external evaluators like METR. This follows the July 24 debut of Opus 5 and aligns with Anthropic’s recent emphasis on measured frontier pacing. While the confirmed availability leaves little room for slippage, any last-minute rollout issues or delayed API access could theoretically shift resolution, though public benchmarks and announcements make such outcomes highly improbable.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$494,797結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Anthropic’s official launch of Claude Opus 5.5 on September 22 drives the near-certain market consensus, with the model now live across the Claude platform, AWS, Google Cloud, and Azure. The release delivers Fable 5.1-level performance on coding and knowledge work benchmarks at roughly 40% lower cost than Opus 5, alongside faster inference, clearer communication, and stronger safety scores from external evaluators like METR. This follows the July 24 debut of Opus 5 and aligns with Anthropic’s recent emphasis on measured frontier pacing. While the confirmed availability leaves little room for slippage, any last-minute rollout issues or delayed API access could theoretically shift resolution, though public benchmarks and announcements make such outcomes highly improbable.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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