Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 releases have driven its 71.5% market-implied odds by topping independent leaderboards such as BenchAlign with scores above 84, excelling on coding, agentic, and reasoning benchmarks like SWE-bench. Traders see sustained momentum from Anthropic’s use of its own large language models for 26% of internal R&D, alongside strong enterprise adoption and safety-focused development. Google’s 12% share reflects competitive Gemini 3.8 Flash value and speed but lags on flagship intelligence metrics, while OpenAI’s 9.5% follows GPT-6 Astra’s gated September launch and mixed benchmark results against Anthropic leaders. Key catalysts ahead include further model updates and potential IPO timelines that could shift competitive positioning by year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Anthropic 72%
Google 12%
OpenAI 10%
Meta 3.6%
$1,321,546 交易量
$1,321,546 交易量
2026-12-31
Anthropic
72%
12%
OpenAI
10%
Meta
4%
xAI
3%
DeepSeek
1%
阿里巴巴
1%
Moonshot
1%
Z.ai
1%
百度
<1%
字節跳動
<1%
Mistral
<1%
美團
<1%
微軟
<1%
亞馬遜
<1%
Anthropic 72%
Google 12%
OpenAI 10%
Meta 3.6%
$1,321,546 交易量
$1,321,546 交易量
2026-12-31
Anthropic
$161,871 交易量
72%
$80,856 交易量
12%
OpenAI
$124,242 交易量
10%
Meta
$82,751 交易量
4%
xAI
$108,605 交易量
3%
DeepSeek
$92,005 交易量
1%
阿里巴巴
$72,453 交易量
1%
Moonshot
$92,214 交易量
1%
Z.ai
$76,292 交易量
1%
百度
$70,827 交易量
<1%
字節跳動
$85,143 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$73,543 交易量
<1%
美團
$62,962 交易量
<1%
微軟
$69,516 交易量
<1%
亞馬遜
$68,268 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 releases have driven its 71.5% market-implied odds by topping independent leaderboards such as BenchAlign with scores above 84, excelling on coding, agentic, and reasoning benchmarks like SWE-bench. Traders see sustained momentum from Anthropic’s use of its own large language models for 26% of internal R&D, alongside strong enterprise adoption and safety-focused development. Google’s 12% share reflects competitive Gemini 3.8 Flash value and speed but lags on flagship intelligence metrics, while OpenAI’s 9.5% follows GPT-6 Astra’s gated September launch and mixed benchmark results against Anthropic leaders. Key catalysts ahead include further model updates and potential IPO timelines that could shift competitive positioning by year-end.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市場開放時間： Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ET
交易量
$1,321,546結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 releases have driven its 71.5% market-implied odds by topping independent leaderboards such as BenchAlign with scores above 84, excelling on coding, agentic, and reasoning benchmarks like SWE-bench. Traders see sustained momentum from Anthropic’s use of its own large language models for 26% of internal R&D, alongside strong enterprise adoption and safety-focused development. Google’s 12% share reflects competitive Gemini 3.8 Flash value and speed but lags on flagship intelligence metrics, while OpenAI’s 9.5% follows GPT-6 Astra’s gated September launch and mixed benchmark results against Anthropic leaders. Key catalysts ahead include further model updates and potential IPO timelines that could shift competitive positioning by year-end.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$1,321,546結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETAnthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 releases have driven its 71.5% market-implied odds by topping independent leaderboards such as BenchAlign with scores above 84, excelling on coding, agentic, and reasoning benchmarks like SWE-bench. Traders see sustained momentum from Anthropic’s use of its own large language models for 26% of internal R&D, alongside strong enterprise adoption and safety-focused development. Google’s 12% share reflects competitive Gemini 3.8 Flash value and speed but lags on flagship intelligence metrics, while OpenAI’s 9.5% follows GPT-6 Astra’s gated September launch and mixed benchmark results against Anthropic leaders. Key catalysts ahead include further model updates and potential IPO timelines that could shift competitive positioning by year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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