OpenAI's explicit decision to delay any IPO beyond 2026, with CEO Sam Altman citing AI safety and alignment priorities as making a near-term listing ill-advised, has anchored trader sentiment around Anthropic going public first at a 94% implied probability. Anthropic maintains momentum through its earlier confidential S-1 filing, robust revenue run-rate exceeding $65 billion annualized, and active preparations for marketing as soon as mid-October with a potential listing targeted before November midterms. This timeline contrast reflects Anthropic's clearer path to a 2026 debut versus OpenAI's shift toward 2027. Key swing factors include any last-minute regulatory hurdles, market volatility, or shifts in either company's strategic priorities that could alter execution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Anthropic或OpenAI會先上市嗎？
Anthropic或OpenAI會先上市嗎？
Anthropic
94% 機率
$365,886 交易量
$365,886 交易量
2027-12-30
Anthropic
94% 機率
$365,886 交易量
$365,886 交易量
2027-12-30
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.OpenAI's explicit decision to delay any IPO beyond 2026, with CEO Sam Altman citing AI safety and alignment priorities as making a near-term listing ill-advised, has anchored trader sentiment around Anthropic going public first at a 94% implied probability. Anthropic maintains momentum through its earlier confidential S-1 filing, robust revenue run-rate exceeding $65 billion annualized, and active preparations for marketing as soon as mid-October with a potential listing targeted before November midterms. This timeline contrast reflects Anthropic's clearer path to a 2026 debut versus OpenAI's shift toward 2027. Key swing factors include any last-minute regulatory hurdles, market volatility, or shifts in either company's strategic priorities that could alter execution.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
交易量
$365,886結束日期
2027-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.OpenAI's explicit decision to delay any IPO beyond 2026, with CEO Sam Altman citing AI safety and alignment priorities as making a near-term listing ill-advised, has anchored trader sentiment around Anthropic going public first at a 94% implied probability. Anthropic maintains momentum through its earlier confidential S-1 filing, robust revenue run-rate exceeding $65 billion annualized, and active preparations for marketing as soon as mid-October with a potential listing targeted before November midterms. This timeline contrast reflects Anthropic's clearer path to a 2026 debut versus OpenAI's shift toward 2027. Key swing factors include any last-minute regulatory hurdles, market volatility, or shifts in either company's strategic priorities that could alter execution.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$365,886結束日期
2027-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETOpenAI's explicit decision to delay any IPO beyond 2026, with CEO Sam Altman citing AI safety and alignment priorities as making a near-term listing ill-advised, has anchored trader sentiment around Anthropic going public first at a 94% implied probability. Anthropic maintains momentum through its earlier confidential S-1 filing, robust revenue run-rate exceeding $65 billion annualized, and active preparations for marketing as soon as mid-October with a potential listing targeted before November midterms. This timeline contrast reflects Anthropic's clearer path to a 2026 debut versus OpenAI's shift toward 2027. Key swing factors include any last-minute regulatory hurdles, market volatility, or shifts in either company's strategic priorities that could alter execution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions